Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W [RAMIL] StormWatch No. 02

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 96W [RAMIL] STORMWATCH NO. 02 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 01 November 2017 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Thursday 02 Nov 2017 or earlier
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W [RAMIL] has been struggling to organize after crossing the Visayas…now emerging over the West Philippine Sea, just west of the Calamian Group of Islands.  24-hr Outlook:  This LPA will become a  Tropical Depression (TD) while moving westward across the West Philippine Sea, and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening (Nov 02). The system's circulation together with the enhanced surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bringing scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, and most parts of Luzon today through Thursday (Nov 02).
Where is 96W (RAMIL)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT, November 01…0900 GMT.  The center was located over West Philippine Sea (near 11.9N 119.1E), about 118 km west of Coron, Palawan or 86 km north-northwest of El Nido, Palawan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving West-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards West Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	The reliable Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are still aggressive on this system to become a Tropical Depression (TD) or Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 06 to 24 hours – as it moves westward across the West Philippine Sea and away from the country.  The forecast confidence is at HIGH. LPA 96W's (RAMIL's) main circulation will continue to bring scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas. The Day 1 forecast (Nov 02) shows it moving out of the PAR on Thursday evening, in the general direction of Vietnam.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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