Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 05

TYPHOON LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 05 Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Wednesday 18 October 2017 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 19 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook	LAN (PAOLO) has intensified into a Typhoon (TY) as it accelerates north-northwestward across the Central Philippine Sea during the past 06 to 12 hours. The typhoon's western Trough will bring "on-and-off" rains and thunderstorms along the Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Eastern Visayas. TY LAN (PAOLO) is expected to gain more strength and maintain its north-northwest track for the next 24 hours at a decreased speed of 16 kph. Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country. Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W* situated over the West Philippine Sea, west of Palawan is currently intensifying and is now the subject of a WPF StormWatch. For more details, kindly visit: http://bit.ly/2yzmRey
Where is LAN (PAOLO)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 18…0900 GMT. The center was located over the mid-eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.6N 131.7E), about 810 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 920 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving North-Northwest @ 23 kph, towards the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?	*Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):* >> None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves north-northwestward across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 848 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM Oct 19: 16.2N 130.0E @ 170kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Super Typhoon as it moves north-northwest to north across the southern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 730 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Oct 20: 19.6N 129.0E @ 225kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Category 4 Typhoon as it starts to recurve towards the north-northeast, across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 801 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM Oct 21: 22.6N 129.4E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,210 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 180 km from center.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed October 18, 2017 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.6º N Lat 131.7º E Lon Distance 1: 709 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar Distance 2: 770 km ENE of Catbalogan City, Samar Distance 3: 798 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte Distance 4: 820 km ENE of Ormoc City, Leyte Distance 5: 1153 km E of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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