Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 001

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 001

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Saturday 12 December 2015
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 12 December 2015

The Tropical Depression with international name MELOR (a Malaysian word for Jasmine flower) has rapidly intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) and entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It is now locally named as "NONA." as it may pose a serious threat to Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas early next week.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning next week. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of TS MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 48 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 12...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea...(near 10.4N 135.0E)
About: 1,056 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Samar...or 1,227 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southeast of the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 35 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 18 kph
Towards: Bicol Region

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS MELOR (NONA) is expected to move west-northwest with a decrease forward speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall traverse the eastern and central parts of the Philippine Sea through Monday early morning (Dec 14).

TS MELOR (NONA) is forecast to continue intensifying throughout the outlook period and could become a Typhoon on Sunday (Dec 13).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it moves WNW across the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...about 644 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM DEC 13: 12.0N 131.3E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying as it move across the Central part of the Philippine Sea...about 403 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM DEC 14: 13.2N 128.0E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the eastern coast of the Bicol Region...about 98 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM DEC 15: 13.6N 125.2E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Dec 12, 2015
Location of Center: Near 10.4º N Lat 135.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1018 km ESE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 1157 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 1266 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 1242 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 5: 1331 km ESE of Metro Naga

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph