Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update #022

Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 022

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 022
Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Sunday 10 May 2015
Next Update: Monday Early Morning, 11 May 2015

Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has weakened slightly as it skirts along the eastern shores of Cagayan...bringing violent winds over the area.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northeastern Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands, and Batanes Group of Islands - Tonight through Monday morning (May 11).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Cagayan and Northeastern Isabela - Tonight (May 10).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Eastern coasts of Cagayan incl. the eastern islands of the Babuyan Group - late this afternoon (May 10) through early Monday morning (May 11); Batanes Group of Islands - Monday (May 11).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Rest of Eastern Cagayan, eastern coasts of Isabela and rest of the Babuyan Group - Sunday (May 10).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of the eastern sections of Isabela and rest of Cagayan - Sunday (May 10).

Moderate to Strong Winds (Gusts of up to 75 kph): Rest of Isabela and Northern Aurora - Sunday (May 10).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4.0-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan and Eastern Isabela - today...and across Calayan Island - tonight through early Sunday morning (May 11). Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Rest of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 10...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the northeastern tip of Cagayan (near 18.3N 122.4E)
About: 145 km north of Palanan, Isabela...or 25 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 230 kph near the center...Gustiness: 285 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 350 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 615 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 155 km North from the center and 140 km south from the center
Past Movement: North-northwest @ 17 kph
Forecast Movement: North @ 20 kph
Towards: Northern Cagayan-Balintang Channel Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move northward at an average speed for the next 24 hours...accelerating and turning to the north-northeast and northeast on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be traversing Babuyan and Balintang Channels tonight passing over the Batanes Group of Islands early tomorrow morning. By Monday evening, Noul shall be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way to the Ryukyu Islands.

NOUL (DODONG) shall weaken throughout the forecast period as it moves across an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 120 kph on Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it turns north...traverses the Balintang Channel and the Batanes Group of Islands...about 190 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM MAY 11: 22.1N 122.6E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Recurves and accelerates to the north-northeast and northeast across Yaeyama-Ishigaki Islands...weakens further into a minimal typhoon...about 635 km northeast of Okinawa, Japan [2PM MAY 12: 30.7N 132.3E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun May 10, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 18.3º N Lat 122.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 170 km NNE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 2: 100 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 3: 75 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 235 km NNE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 240 km SSE of Basco, Batanes