for Thursday, 01 August 2013 [10:17 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (JOLINA) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 01 August 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 02 August 2013
Tropical Storm JEBI (JOLINA) has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Hainan threatening the Island.
This storm will continue to slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Zambales, Bataan, Western Batangas, CaLaBaRZon, and some parts of Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila, and Western Panay in the Visayas. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) remains organized and rapidly moving NW across the Balintang Channel. Its developing center was located about 146 km W of Basco, Batanes (20.4N Lat 120.6E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center...moving NW rapidly. This disturbance has a medium chance (30-50%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours. Its rainbands will bring moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms along the Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes Island Group tonight.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern China and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Jebi (Jolina).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Jebi (Jolina) was located over the South China Sea...about 415 km southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island or 730 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales...currently moving north-northwest to northwestward with a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr in the general direction of Hainan Island.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Jebi (Jolina) is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Jebi (Jolina) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Jebi (Jolina) is expected to move northwest for the next 24 hours with a turn to the west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Jebi (Jolina) will be approaching eastern coast of Hainan Island on Friday afternoon...making landfall over Northern Hainan on Friday evening...and will be over the Gulf of Tonkin on Saturday morning.
Jebi (Jolina) will continue to intensify within the next 24 hours as it moves towards Hainan Island. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the storm reaching its peak sustained winds of 85 km/hr on Friday afternoon...weakening to 75 km/hr on Saturday morning.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
FRIDAY EVENING: Continues to strengthen as it approaches Eastern Hainan...about 50 km east of Qionghai, Hainan Island [6PM AUGUST 02: 19.2N 111.0E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Weakens as it makes landfall over Northern Vietnam...passing very close north of Hanoi...about 65 km north-northeast of Hanoi, Northern Vietnam [6PM AUGUST 03: 21.5N 106.2E @ 65kph]. SUNDAY EVENING: Dissipating over Southwestern China, just off the northwestern border of Vietnam...about 505 km west-northwest of Hanoi, Vietnam [6PM AUGUST 04: 23.1N 101.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western-mid portion of the South China Sea. OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-55 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, West Philippine and South China Seas. (click here to know more about Rainbands) 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Jebi (Jolina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Aug 01, 2013
Class/Name: TS Jebi (Jolina)
Location of Center: 16.6º N Lat 113.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 415 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 450 km ESE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 3: 545 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 4: 610 km E of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 730 km WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 6: 640 km SSW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 15 kph
Towards: Hainan Island
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JEBI (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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