for Sunday, 18 August 2013 [9:01 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (MARING) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 18 August 2013
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sunday 18 August 2013
Tropical Depression 12W (MARING) almost stationary over the North Philippine Sea after drifting east-southeastward during the past 12 hours.
This system together with Tropical Depression (TD) 13W will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) -- bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of the Philippines...becoming more frequent along Western Luzon including Metro Manila today through Monday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 13W has accelerated rapidly towards Southeastern China during the past 12 hours. Latest dynamic forecast models show the system weakening as it approaches the Chinese Coastline. Its center was located about 290 km northwest of Okinawa, Japan (28.4N Lat 125.8E Lon)...with maximum winds of 45 km/hr near the center...moving WNW @ 30 kph towards Southeastern China.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan and the islands of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Miyako-Yaeyama-Batanes Islands should closely monitor the development of 12W (Maring).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 am today, the center of TD 12W (Maring) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 470 km east of Basco, Batanes or 700 km south-southwest of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving east with a decreased forward speed of 04 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 12W (Maring) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TD 12W (Maring) is expected to move east to east-northeast for the next 24 hours...turning northward by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 12W (Maring) will remain over the warm open waters of the North Philippine Sea, just to the south of Okinawa thru Tuesday morning as the system undergoes a counter-clockwise turn.
12W (Maring) is expected to gradually intensify through the next 24 to 48 hours...becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) later today or Monday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows 12W (Maring) reaching a projected sustained winds of 85 km/hr on Tuesday morning.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
MONDAY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it begins its counter-clockwise turn across the North Philippine Sea...about 660 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan [5AM AUG 19: 20.7N 129.1E @ 65kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Continues to gain strength...completes its counter-clockwise turn...tracking west-northwest...about 435 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan [5AM AUG 20: 22.7N 128.9E @ 85kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Still gaining strength...maintains its west-northwest track towards Miyako and Yaeyama Islands...about 130 km east of Ishigakijima [5AM AUG 21: 24.5N 125.5E @ 100kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west near the center of 12W (Maring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 18, 2013
Class/Name: TD 12W (Maring)
Location of Center: 20.3º N Lat 126.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 470 km E of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 490 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 525 km SSE of Ishigakijima
Distance 4: 700 km SSW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: E @ 04 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
__________________________________________________________________________________________________ >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 12W (MARING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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