WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (UNNAMED) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 08 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 08 July 2013
The strong disturbance (LPA) over the open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean has strengthened into Tropical Depression 07W...now passing very close to the northernmost part of Mariana Islands. This system could threaten Taiwan this weekend.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of 07W (Unnamed).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 am today, the center of TD 07W (Unnamed) was located over the northernmost part of the Mariana Islands...about 100 km north-northeast of Agrihan Island or 453 km north-northeast of Saipan...currently moving west with an accelerated forward speed of 24 km/hr in the general direction of Taiwan-Okinawa Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 07W (Unnamed) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TD 07W (Unnamed) is expected to continue moving generally westward for the next 24 hours, with a turn to the west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 07W (Unnamed) will pass very close to the north of the Marianas today and will be moving across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean. By Wednesday afternoon, the system will enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility...moving across the northeastern part of the Philippine Sea through Thursday morning.
07W (Unnamed) is forecast to gradually intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours and will become a Tropical Storm today. Advance intensity forecast shows 07W reaching Typhoon status on Thursday morning.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY MORNING: Strengthens to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves away from the northernmost part of the Mariana Islands...about 331 km west-northwest of Agirhan Island [5AM JULY 09: 19.2N 142.5E @ 85kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Approaching the northeastern border of the PAR...remains over the open seas...about 261 km east of the PAR [5AM JULY 10: 19.9N 137.5E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Attains Typhoon status as it moves across the northeastern portion of the Philippine Sea...about 795 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan [5AM JULY 11: 21.0N 132.8E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: Northernmost Mariana Islands (Agrihan Island down to Saipan). Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of 07W (Unnamed).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon July 08, 2013
Class/Name: TD 07W (Unnamed)
Location of Center: 19.2º N Lat 146.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km ENE of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 453 km NNE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 667 km NNE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 815 km SE of Iwo To
Distance 5: 1,197 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 6: 2,068 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 7: 2,553 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 2,630 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: West @ 24 kph
Towards: Taiwan-Okinawa Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): --- km [N/A]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
_____________________________________________________________________________>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 07W (Unnamed)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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