WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (AURING) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday 04 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 04 Jan 2013
Auring becomes a Tropical Storm as it bears down the coast of Southern Palawan...now internationally named as Sonamu...expected to pass over Southern Palawan within the next few hours, particularly the towns of Brooke's Point and Bataraza.
This storm will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and I.T.C.Z. and bring moderate to strong winds with "on-and-off" slight, moderate to heavy rains across the Rest of Visayas & Mindanao, Eastern & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Bicol Region, Marinduque.
Residents and visitors along Palawan and Spratly Islands should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12 midnight today, the center of Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) was located just along the shores of Southern Palawan...about 35 km east-southeast of Brooke's Point, Palawan or 55 km east of Bataraza, Palawan...currently moving west with a forward speed of 37 km/hr in the general direction of Southern Palawan & the West Philippine Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Sonamu (Auring) is a small-to-average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and to north of the center of TS Sonamu is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to move slightly west-southwestward during the next 24 to 48 hours with a slight turn to the west throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) is expected to pass over Southern Palawan in the coming hours...and move across the West Philippine Sea later this afternoon. This storm may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday evening. On Saturday through Monday, Sonamu (Auring) will be moving across the South China Sea, just to the south of Vietnam.
Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to maintain its strength within the next 24 to 72 hours.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY MIDNIGHT: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it maintains its strength while moving across the West Philippine Sea [12AM JAN 05: 8.1N 113.0E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY MIDNIGHT: Moving WSW across the South China Sea [12AM JAN 06: 7.6N 109.4E @ 65kph].
MONDAY MIDNIGHT: Approaching the Gulf of Thailand [12AM JAN 07: 7.4N 107.3E @ 65kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Southern Palawan. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Rest of Palawan, Spratly Islands and Borneo. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light to moderate winds (<35 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the developing rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near and north of the center of TS Sonamu (Auring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 MN PhT Fri January 04, 2013
Class/Name: TS Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 8.7º N Lat 118.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 35 km (ESE) from Brooke's Point, Palawan
Distance 2: 55 km (E) from Bataraza, Palawan
Distance 3: 74 km (SSW) from Narra, Palawan
Distance 4: 129 km (SSW) away from Puerto Princesa City
Distance 5: 135 km (NE) from Balabac, Palawan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: West @ 37 kph
Towards: Southern Palawan
CPA [ETA] to Southern Palawan: Now [1-2AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small/Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 7 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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