Friday, October 12, 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #015

 


for Friday, 12 October 2012 [6:44 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 015

Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 12 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 13 Oct 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) slightly weaker...maintains its slow northeast track across the North Philippine Sea.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).


Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 pm today, the ragged eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 751 km east of Basco, Batanes or 715 km south-southeast of Okinawa City, Japan...currently moving northeast with a forward speed of 5 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).


3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to continue moving slowly northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours...and this movement will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea through Monday evening.

This typhoon may still likely to re-intensify during the next 24 hours....before it starts to weaken. This weakening trend of Prapiroon (Nina) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content) and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY EVENING: Moving slowly northeastward as it regains its category 3 strength...about 878 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [6PM OCT 13: 21.3N 130.4E @ 195kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a category 2 typhoon while moving away from the North Philippine Sea...about 588 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6PM OCT 14: 22.5N 131.6E @ 175kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Continues to lose strength...moving closer to Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...about 554 southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6PM OCT 15: 23.9N 132.5E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

25-KM RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North & Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...its westernmost part starts to recede away from Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri October 12, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 20.2º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 684 km (SSE) away from Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 704 km (SSE) away from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 715 km (SSE) away from Okinawa City
Distance 4: 751 km (E) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 758 km (ENE) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Present Movement: NE @ 05 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 43 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)


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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif


CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE
:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg


CURRENT TRACKING CHART:


http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/nina15.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
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