Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday August 04, 2012):
(1) Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on HAIKUI (12W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR); (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the PAR.
HAIKUI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (12W) UPDATE NUMBER 002
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 04 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
HAIKUI (12W) now a Tropical Storm as it quickly moved Westward during the past 6 hours. HAIKUI is a Chinese word for a kind of submarine animal whose appearance looks like a sunflower.
This depression, although will not directly affect the Philippines, is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the country particularly the western sections. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat August 04, 2012
Location of Center: 25.2� N Lat 133.6� E Lon
Distance 1: 596 km (ESE) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 541 km (SE) closer to Amami, Japan
Distance 3: 777 km (WNW) away from Iwo To
Distance 4: 1298 km (ENE) away from Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 935 km (505 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
HAIKUI (12W) is expected to resume moving WNW throughout the forecast period and will slow down. On the forecast track, the core of HAIKUI will pass over or very close to Okinawa Island on Sunday morning.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and the storm is expected to become a Typhoon on Monday.
SAOLA is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 935 kilometers (505 nautical miles) across.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it passes very close to Okinawa Island...about 37 km ENE of Okinawa City [11AM AUG 05: 26.7N 128.1E @ 85kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Almost a Typhoon as it slows down while moving away from Okinawa and Amami Islands...about 258 WNW of Okinawa City...enters the East China Sea [11AM AUG 06: 27.4N 125.4E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon while heading slowly closer to Eastern China...about 345 km East of Wenzhou City, China [11AM AUG 07: 27.8N 124.2E @ 130kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas...but expected to reach the Southern Islands of Japan later tonight. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Haikui (12W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with isolated occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: PHILIPPINES particularly the Western Sections (except Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS HAIKUI (12W)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:
_____________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS HAIKUI (12W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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