Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 22 2012):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on VICENTE (FERDIE).
VICENTE MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 013
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 24 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
VICENTE (FERDIE) rapidly dissipating over Guangxi Province in China...downgraded to a Tropical Storm.
VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Northern and Central Luzon particularly the western sections. Breezy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangxi Province should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue July 24 2012
Location of Center: 23.2� N Lat 109.7� E Lon
Distance 1: 227 km NNW of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 2: 415 km WNW of Macau
Distance 3: 475 km WNW of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 470 km NE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Guangxi-North Vietnam Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Avg/Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PhT Tue Jul 24
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
VICENTE (FERDIE) is expected to move West to WSW for the next 24 hours with a decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of Vicente will continue to traverse Guangxi Province later tonight until Wednesday morning and will be along Northern Vietnam by late Wednesday afternoon.
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) have decreased to 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will continue within the next 24 hours as Vicente (Ferdie) moves across the landmass of Southwestern China and into Northern Vietnam. Complete dissipation is forecast by Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles) from the center. VICENTE is a large/average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating over land...just a Tropical Depression (TD) as it traverses the rugged terrain of Northern Vietnam [5PM JUL 25: 22.3N 105.2E @ 55kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern Guangxi. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Hainan and the rest of Southern China including Hong Kong and Macau. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 120 mm (high) along areas near the center of Vicente (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Weak Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) over the Southeastern Philippine Sea remains disorganized as it tracks NNE slowly. Various dynamic computer models still continues to show possible development into a Tropical Depression within the next 3 to 4 days. Its center was located about 133 km SW of Koror, Palau or 843 km ESE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur (6.3N 133.7E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and was moving NNE @ 13 kph towards the Central Philippine Sea. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains LOW (<30% Chance).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON particularly the western sections. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS VICENTE (FERDIE)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS VICENTE (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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