for Sunday, 04 September 2011 [7:45 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 03 2011):
Now issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 16W (Unnamed).
16W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 16W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sun 04 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
16W (UNNAMED) strengthened into a Tropical Storm...accelerating rapidly NNE-ward, across the open Western Pacific Ocean.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun September 04 2011
Location of Center: 25.1º N Lat 151.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 384 km WNW of Marcus Island
Distance 2: 962 km ESE of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 1,018 km West of Iwo To
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 39 kph (21 kts)
Towards: Kuril Islands
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): --- km [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Sun Sep 04
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
16W (UNNAMED) is expected to move North during the next 48 hours... and will remain over the open waters of the Western Pacific.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. 16W is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and 16W is expected to become a Category 1 Typhoon by Tuesday.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly intensifying over the open sea...about 577 km NW of Marcus Island [2PM SEP 04: 28.2N 151.6E @ 100kph]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Nearing Typhoon threshold as it maintains its fast northerly track...about 942 km NNW of Marcus Island [2AM SEP 05: 31.7N 151.0E @ 110kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength & speed...about 976 km ESE of Tokyo, Japan [2PM SEP 05: 34.8N 150.4E @ 110kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...about 955 km South of Kuril Islands [2AM SEP 06: 37.4N 150.5E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
16W's (UNNAMED) circulation continues to consolidate over the open sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Marcus Island. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 55 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of 16W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 24.1N 151.3E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM E OF IWO TO,
JAPAN, HAS MAINTAINED A FAST STORM MOTION AND TRACKED NORTH-NORTH-
EASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 031608Z 36 HZ AQUA
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE EAST OF A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) AND TO THE WEST OF AN
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW, ALBEIT IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE TUTT IS
EXERTING PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND IS SUPPRESSING
OUTFLOW. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND MAINTAINS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. AFTER
TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, A HIGH AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST WILL BUILD AND STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AFTER TAU 72, TS 16W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ET) AND WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL.
THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ET BY END OF FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE IT FANS OUT TO
APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES WITH EGRR TO THE LEFT OF AND JGSM AND WBAR
TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS...(more info)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 16W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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