Wednesday, June 22, 2011

TD HAIMA [EGAY] - Update #020

 


for Wednesday, 22 June 2011 [1:59 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 22 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS HAIMA (EGAY).


HAIMA (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAIMA [EGAY/06W/1104]

T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 22 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #022/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression HAIMA (EGAY) has been barely moving during the past 3 hours...remains a threat to Western Guangdong including Hong Kong-Macau Area.

Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern & Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of HAIMA (EGAY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed June 22 2011
Location of Center: 20.2º N Lat 113.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (127 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 225 km (122 nm) South of Macau
Distance 3: 325 km (175 nm) East of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 4: 325 km (175 nm) ESE of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Western Guangdong
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 400 mm (Very High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM HKT Wed June 22

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*

06W (EGAY) is expected to remain a depression throughout the 2-day forecast...will return to its usual WNW path. This system shall make landfall near Zhanjiang City by Thursday afternoon (June 23).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

HAIMA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*

ZHANJIANG CITY AREA:  about 35 km NNE of Zhanjiang City [ETA: 1:00 PM to 2:00 PM Thursday, June 23].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

HAIMA's (EGAY) circulation continues to reorganize while over the South China Sea. Most of its intense raincloud convection remains to the south and southwest of the low-level circulation center (LLCC). Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea), but with some of its scattered bands affecting Southern China & Hainan Island Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very high) southwest of the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 22 JUNE POSITION: 20.2N 113.2E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST FROM THE 21/1800Z POSITION. IT BECAME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM, AND THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM WAS MOVED TO THE CENTROID
CENTER AND NOT AN INDIVIDUAL SURFACE CIRCULATION..
.(
more)
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RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
:

 
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  


> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
:  



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD HAIMA (EGAY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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