for Sunday, 22 May 2011 [6:14 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday May 22 2011):
Please be advised that the T2K SMS Service on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) will initiate once the system enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early tomorrow. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG).
SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SONGDA [Pre-CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 22 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) continues to move slowly WNW, farther away from Western Micronesia (Yap-Ulithi-Palau)...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight or early tomorrow.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon & Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun May 22 2011
Location of Center: 10.2º N Lat 136.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 110 km (60 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 245 km (132 nm) WNW of Yap Is., FSM
Distance 3: 370 km (200 nm) NNE of Palau Is., FSM
Distance 4: 1170 km (632 nm) ESE of Borongan City, PH
Distance 5: 1330 km (718 nm) ESE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: 8AM-8PM Thu May 26
24hr Rainfall Acumm (near center): 520 mm (Very High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy) new!
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small-Avg
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Sun May 22
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying while maintaining its WNW track into the Philippine Sea within the next 2 days. The storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tomorrow morning and will be upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon around tomorrow afternoon [2AM MAY 23: 10.6N 135.0E @ 100kph...2PM MAY 23: 11.0N 133.7E @ 120kph]. As SONGDA moves across the warm Philippine Sea - it will therefore gain Category 2 status on Tuesday afternoon [2AM MAY 24: 11.4N 132.4E @ 140kph...2PM MAY 24: 11.9N 131.1E @ 160kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. SONGDA remains a small-to-average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a major Category 3 Typhoon while tracking WNW to NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...with a distance of about 500 km East of Sorsogon City [2PM MAY 25: 13.1N 128.6E @ 185kph]. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Steadily intensifying as it passes to the NE of Bicol Region...about 270 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM MAY 26: 15.1N 126.2E @ 205kph]. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to near-Super Typhoon status (Category 4) w/ forecast wind projection of 215-km/hr...approaching the east coast of Cagayan Province along Northeastern Luzon...about 220 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM MAY 27: 17.9N 123.7E @ 215kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's CDO continues to organize near its center. Latest satellite imagery shows a possible eye formation - a sign that the system is nearing typhoon strength. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - remains over water (Philippine Sea)...showing an early formative stages of an "Eye." Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - well organized...moving away from Yap & Ulithi Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will continue to prevail along these bands until tonight. OUTER RAINBANDS - continues to spread across most parts of the Caroline Islands including Palau, Western Micronesia & the southeasternmost part of the Philippine Sea - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 520 mm (very high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will prevail along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 22 MAY POSITION: 10.0N 136.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE 22/06Z PGTW SATELLITE ANALYSIS FIX AND INTERPOLATED FROM MSI
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES, RJTD, AND PGTW RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP AND PALAU, JUST EAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IN RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY (220446Z AMSRE) SUPPORT AN INTENSITY AT THE LOWER
END OF THIS RANGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW (THOUGH IMPROVING),
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. TS SONGDA IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48, BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WITHIN AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND
GFDN, WHICH ARE AT THE OUTER EXTENTS OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, BUT HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS (FAVORING ECMWF, NOGAPS, WBAR, AND
EGRR) AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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