for Friday, 27 May 2011 [7:39 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday May 26 2011):
SONGDA (Chedeng) has reached Category 5 - making it the strongest typhoon since MEGI (Juan) of Oct 2010. It is also the first typhoon for this season (2011). Now resuming the 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on STY SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 023
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 27 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #027/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Super Typhoon SONGDA (CHEDENG) becomes the first typhoon of 2011, and the strongest so far since Super Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) of October 2010...now starting to turn poleward (north) and threatens the Japanese Island of Okinawa. Its Western Outer Bands contiinues to bring rains & winds along the eastern portions of Luzon particularly Cagayan. Weak Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) being enhanced by this howler is bringing cloudy skies w/ some passing occasional rains along Mindoro, Western Visayas & Palawan.
Residents and visitors along the Extreme Northern Luzon and the Southern Islands of Japan (Okinawa-Ryukyus) should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri May 27 2011
Location of Eye: 17.8º N Lat 124.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 255 km (138 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 255 km (138 nm) ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 3: 270 km (145 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 275 km (148 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 370 km (200 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 375 km (202 nm) ESE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 475 km (255 nm) NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 480 km (260 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph (140 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Sat Night May 28 [9-11PM JST]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile new!
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft (12.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Fri May 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is forecast to start decaying after reaching its peak wind velocity of 260 km/hr @ Category 5 within the next 24 hours and will recurve towards the NE passing over Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands before Day 2. Based on its potential track, SONGDA will leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday afternoon, May 28.
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Turning towards the NNE while holding on with its Category 5 status...about 240 km East of Calayan Island [2PM MAY 27: 19.2N 123.8E @ 260kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Accelerating NNE...downgraded to Category 4 but no longer "Super"...about 255 km NE of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 28: 21.7N 124.1E @ 230kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON [SAT]: Continues losing strength...accelerating further as it exits PAR...about 290 km SW of Naha, Okinawa [2PM MAY 28: 24.8N 125.8E @ 195kph]. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Naje Is., Ryukyus...downgraded to Category 1...becoming Extratropical [2AM MAY 29: 28.3N 129.0E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 260 km/hr (140 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is an extremely catastrophic, Category 5 Super Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 325 kilometers (175 nautical miles). SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles). MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Loses tropical characteristics...becomes Extratropical while passing to the south of Honshu, Japan [2AM MAY 30: 33.7N 138.2E @ 95kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the NW Pacific Ocean as a strong Extratropical Cyclone w/ tropical storm force winds along its periphery [2AM MAY 31: 37.0N 150.3E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's impressive & strong radial circulation continues to be observe on satellite imageries. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 19-KM. SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water...but western edge affecting the coastal areas of Eastern Cagayan and Isabela. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Rest of Cagayan and Isabela, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands, and the rest of Eastern Luzon incl. Polillo Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Aurora, Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains w/ squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, MINDORO, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, & METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
Now In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected today. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, ISABELA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLAND.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 27 MAY POSITION: 17.2N 124.4E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A 10 NM SYMMETRIC EYE AND A 261712Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE EYE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. STY 04W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW
STY 04W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, STY SONGDA SHOULD MAINTAIN STY INTENSITY
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS STY 04W BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, IT
WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND LOW SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION FULLY INTO A STRONG
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. THEN, SOME ADDITIONAL SPREAD
OCCURS WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACKING FARTHER NORTHWARD, JUST SOUTH
OF KYOTO, JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
TRANSLATION SPEED. GFDN, NOGAPS, WBAR ARE THE FASTER MODELS WHILE
AVNI, EGRR, AND JGSI REMAIN GENERALLY SLOWER. THIS FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 48 IS RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL
RECURVATURE SCENARIO ERRORS. FROM TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 96, THE
FORECAST IS FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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