Monday, October 18, 2010

Super Typhoon MEGI [JUAN] Intermediate Update #015A

 


for Monday, 18 October 2010 [3:22 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 17 2010):

Currently issuing 3-hrly web, SMS & email advisories on MEGI (JUAN). The T2K HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATE (NOWCASTING) will begin once the system is less than 200 km away from land. A dry-run of the hourly nowcasting has already begun this afternoon on our mainpage.


MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 285 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 225 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K INTERMEDIATE E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015A

3:00 AM PhT (19:00 GMT) Mon 18 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #019/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Super Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) has dipped more to the southwest...now endangers Isabela and Northern Aurora...whole of Luzon under serious threat...No change in strength.

*MEGI is comparable in strength to Super Typhoon ANGELA (ROSING) of November 2-3, 1995, which battered Bicol & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila...and is considered one of the worst typhoons in Philippine History.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon particularly Cagayan and Isabela should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 3:00 AM PhT Mon Oct 18 2010
Location of Eye: 17.6º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km (130 nm) ENE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 2: 245 km (133 nm) East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 3: 255 km (137 nm) ENE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 4: 255 km (137 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 260 km (140 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 365 km (197 nm) ESE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 380 km (205 nm) East of Vigan City
Distance 8: 385 km (210 nm) ENE of Baguio City
Distance 9: 455 km (245 nm) NE of Metro Manila
Distance 10: 455 km (245 nm) NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 285 kph (155 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 350 kph (190 kts)
Present Movement: SW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Isabela-Northern Aurora Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 350 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 895 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Size (in Diameter): 1,010 km (545 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft (11.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [>5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap #007 (for Public): 12 AM PhT Mon Oct 18
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RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
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> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION**Note: Satellite loop finally aligned!


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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