for Friday, 24 September 2010 [12:08 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 23 2010):
PAGASA already updated their local name roster for this year, 2010...MILENYO was replaced by MARIO...while REMING was replaced by RUBY. Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
TYPHOON MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 24 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #016/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALAKAS (13W) moving faster northward...intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon...now passing past Iwo To...Southeastern Eyewall moving across the island.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, & VISAYAS. Light to moderate SE, East, to Variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 24 2010
Location of Eye: 25.3º N Lat 140.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km (38 nm) NW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 220 km (120 nm) SW of Chichijima
Distance 3: 1,295 km (700 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Chichijima Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri Sep 24
MALAKAS' central convection continues to improve with the appearance of a ragged eye. The core (eye and eyewall) of this system has just passed west of Iwo To and will pass close to Chichijima Island this afternoon. It is then expected to accelerate rapidly towards the NE across the NW Pacific, just south of Kuril Islands and Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia)...and become Extratropical on Saturday through Sunday [8PM SEP 24: 28.2N 141.7E @ 185kph...8AM SEP 25: 33.3N 144.1E @ 185kph...8AM SEP 26: 43.3N 153.1E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts...continued strengthening is likely today. MALAKAS is now a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). MALAKAS is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens...passing south of Nikol Skoye Island [8AM SEP 27: 51.5N 166.3E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Typhoon Conditions w/ Typhoon Force Winds are now occurring over Iwo To Island...will gradually recede this afternoon as MALAKAS moves away. Chichijima, on the other hand, are now experiencing Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds...becoming Typhoon Conditions later this afternoon as the typhoon passes by (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of MALAKAS (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount). These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides or landslides. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal and beach front areas of Iwo To and Chichijima Islands. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 232253Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A LARGE RAGGED EYE WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN TO
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 232216Z ITOP
VORTEX MESSAGE AS WELL AS A PGTW FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS.
SURFACE LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS AT 240048Z FROM IWO JO ARE REPORTING
49 KNOT WINDS WITH 98 KNOT GUSTS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED TY 13W TO INTENSIFY BY 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS..(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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