Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Typhoon KOMPASU [GLENDA] endangers Korea... [Update #10]

 


for Wednesday, 01 September 2010 [1:22 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 30 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA).


KOMPASU (GLENDA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

TYPHOON KOMPASU [GLENDA/08W/1007]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010

1:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 01 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #14/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Powerful Typhoon KOMPASU (GLENDA) racing quickly Northward across the East China Sea in the direction of Korea...Northern outer bands now spreading across the resort island of Cheju.

Residents and visitors along the Cheju Island, South & North Korea should closely monitor the progress of KOMPASU.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 1:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 01 2010
Location of Eye: 32.0º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (127 nm) SW of Cheju Island
Distance 2: 335 km (180 nm) ENE of Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 655 km (353 nm) SSW of Seoul, South Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 37 kph (20 kts)
Towards: Korean Peninsula
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 130 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed Sep 01

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TY KOMPASU is expected to turn North, then recurving NE-ward during the next 48 hours...some weakening is likely as the system moves into the slightly cooler waters of the Yellow Sea and an increasing upper-level wind environment (aka. vertical wind shear). The center will make landfall over the central part of Korea or just north of the South and North Korean Border...passing more or less 100 km to the north of Seoul before noontime tomorrow [8AM SEP 02: 37.3N 125.9E @ 160kph]. The typhoon will traverse the southern part of North Korea tomorrow afternoon and will move out into the Sea of Japan during the evening - as a downgraded Tropical Storm [8PM SEP 02: 39.7N 129.5E @ 110kph]...and will start to become Extratropical as it accelerates Eastward across the middle part of the Sea of Japan on Friday morning [8AM SEP 03: 40.9N 134.3E @ 85kph]

KOMPASU remains a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 185 km/hr (100 kts) with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (120 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers (95 nautical miles).

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*

SATURDAY MORNING:  Just south of Kuril Islands after passing between Hokkaido and Honshu (Japan)...becomes an Extratropical Cyclone [8AM SEP 04: 40.7N 146.0E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

KOMPASU's circulation improving once again while over the East China Sea, on its way to Korea. The Northern Outer Bands continues to spread across Cheju Island. Tropical Storm Conditions will start to affect briefly the western part of Cheju later tonight...and will reach SW and Western portions of Korea early tomorrow. Typhoon Conditions is forecast to reach Western Korea including Seoul by tomorrow morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (Moderate) near the center of Kompasu. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Under Tropical Storm Conditions, storm surge heights may reach 1 to 3 feet (0.3 to 0.9 meters) above ground level w/ large and dangerous battering waves...increasing to 9 or 12 feet (2.7 or 3.9 meters) during Typhoon Conditions. Dangerous storm surge will be felt across Western Korea beginning early tomorrow morning.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
 
            


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 01 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 30.4N 125.2E.
*ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED EYE, WHICH CONFIRMS (WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE)
THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR MOTION. A 312156Z TRMM 37GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS ALSO DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND
INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DEEPEST CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WHICH ARE ALSO
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM.
..(more)

>> KOMPASU, meaning: Circinus; a V-shaped device for describing circles or circular arcsName contributed by: Japan.

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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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