Monday, September 20, 2010

Typhoon FANAPI [INDAY] - Update #15

 


for Sunday, 19 September 2010 [6:48 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 19 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).


FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr

TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 19 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #019/CWB Radar/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

FANAPI
(INDAY) is about to exit Western Taiwan...into the waters of Taiwan Strait...weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon. Typhoon Conditions just affecting Western Taiwan...especially near the center.

Residents and visitors along Southern Fujian and Eastern Guangdong should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 19 2010
Location of Center: 23.3º N Lat 120.2º E Lon {RADAR/SAT FIX}
Distance 1: 80 km (38 nm) North of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 160 km (87 nm) WSW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 235 km (127 nm) SW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 250 km (135 nm) SE of Xiamen, China
Distance 5: 355 km (192 nm) East of Shantou, China
Distance 6: 370 km (200 nm) NW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Taiwan Strait-SE China Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun Sep 19

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

FANAPI will move into Taiwan Strait tonight and reintensify slightly before it makes landfall anew over Eastern Guangdong or Southern Fujian tomorrow afternoon [2AM SEP 20: 22.8N 118.5E @ 150kph...2PM SEP 20: 22.9N 116.1E @ 130kph]. The typhoon will eventually start dissipating as it moves inland across Guangdong or Southern Fujian tomorrow evening until Tuesday afternoon [2AM SEP 21: 23.2N 113.8E @ 85kph...2PM SEP 21: 23.1N 109.0E @ 35kph]...passing some 95 kilometers north of Hong Kong around 11PM tomorrow night .

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 140 km/hr (75 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI has been downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. It should slightly regain strength as it emerges over Taiwan Strait. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nm).

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipated as an area of low pressure over Western Guangdong [2PM SEP 22: 23.1N 109.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

FANAPI's circulation continues to deteriorate after it was greatly affected by the high mountains of Central Taiwan, thus the sudden southwest to west-southwest drift during the past 10 hours. The inner and outer bands of this typhoon continues to cover the whole of Taiwan including Taiwan Strait...and are now spreading across Guangdong and Southern Fujian. Tropical Storm Conditions will continue to affect the Western and Central parts of Taiwan including Taiwan Strait tonight...improving gradually along Northern and Eastern Taiwan. Typhoon Conditions remain only near the core of FANAPI or over a small area of Western Taiwan tonight. Improving weather conditions can be expected over Taiwan by tomorrow as the typhoon moves farther away. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Conditions will start commencing early tomorrow morning along the coastal areas of Southeastern China. (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands or over the rest of Taiwan...with isolated amounts of up to 240 mm (heavy) near the center of FANAPI or over Southwestern Taiwan (click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount). Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...are possible along the coastal areas of Western Taiwan tonight...and over the coast of Eastern Guangdong and Southern Fujian tomorrow. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1007 MB) remains the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert...likely to become a Tropical Depression later tonight or tomorrow. Its center was located near lat 13.7N lon 150.6E...or about 625 km East of Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...moving WSW @ 22 kph...towards Northern Marianas. The 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential remains at 90% (High Chance).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
       


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 19 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.0N 120.9E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN INDICATE TY 12W HAS WEAKENED AND
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF TAIWAN. A 190541Z 89
GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON RADAR FIXES FROM THE
TAIWAN RADAR LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
OBSERVATIONS FROM TAIWAN INDICATING MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF TY 12W, HOWEVER POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN
CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE TAIWAN STRAIGHT BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA NEAR TAU 24. TY 12W IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD OVER INLAND CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.
..(more)

>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islandsName contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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