Tuesday, September 07, 2010

TS MALOU [HENRY] - Update #15

 


for Tuesday, 07 September 2010 [7:37 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).


MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 07 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #21/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm
MALOU (HENRY) weakens after reaching its peak intensity of 85 km/hr...now moving ENE-ward across the Korea Strait. Heavy rainbands affecting Busan City, Southeastern and Eastern portions of South Korea, and Western Kyushu including Sasebo City.

Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue Sep 07 2010
Location of Center: 33.9º N Lat 128.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 150 km (80 nm) ENE of Cheju Island
Distance 2: 160 km (85 nm) SW of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 3: 160 km (85 nm) NW of Sasebo, Japan
Distance 4: 425 km (230 nm) SSE of Seoul, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 10 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Korea Strait-Sea of Japan
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 535 km (290 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue Sep 07

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)*

TS MALOU is expected to continue moving ENE-ward across the Korea Strait today, and will pass over the Island of Tsushima this afternoon [2PM SEP 07: 34.0N 128.9E @ 75kph]. The system will start to transition into an Extratropical tomorrow morning, while moving across the Sea of Japan at an accelerated forward speed [2AM SEP 08: 35.0N 130.8E @ 65kph]. It will then cross Honshu, Japan early Thursday morning as an Extratropical Cyclone [2AM SEP 09: 35.9N 137.2E @ 45kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center, especially along the East and SE quadrants.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:  Moving rapidly eastward across the Northwest Pacific Ocean [2AM SEP 10: 36.6N 145.7E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

MALOU's rain bands are spreading across the southern and eastern portions of South Korea, Busan City, Western Kyushu, and Sasebo City. Tropical Storm Conditions affecting the eastern portions of the Korea Strait, and is expected to reach Tsushima Island later this afternoon. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (Heavy) near the center of MALOU, particularly along the Busan City area. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Strong Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1004 MB) continues to consolidate near the east coast of Taiwan...remains almost stationary. Now located near lat 23.0N lon 124.0E...or about 355 km NE of Basco, Batanes...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. The 24 to 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system has been increased to 50%. Click here to view current satellite visible image.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains can be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON particularly NORTHERN QUEZON AND THE BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light SSW or SW winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
                 


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 07 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 33.1N 127.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ELONGATION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM KYUSHU,
JAPAN, SHOWING A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TS 10W HAS COMPLETED ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS
NOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
COMMENCES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN HONSHU BY TAU 36 THEN EXIT INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN BY TAU 60 AS A WEAK BAROCLINIC LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS WHICH
SEEM TO LOSE THE VORTEX AND TRACK THE SYSTEM ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECAST IS INITIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THEN OVER BUT FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS BEYOND TAU 24.
..(more)

>> MALOU, meaning: AgateName contributed by: Macao, China.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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