for Friday, 03 September 2010 [5:55 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).
MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 03 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #07/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
10W (HENRY) becomes a Tropical Storm...now internationally named MALOU...has slightly veered to the WNW as it continues to induce the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus, Taiwan, Southern Japan & Korea should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 03 2010
Location of Center: 24.3º N Lat 130.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km (180 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 620 km (335 nm) East of Ishigaki Island
Distance 3: 950 km (513 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 225 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri Sep 03
TS MALOU's latest forecast suite remains unchanged since this noontime. It is expected to maintain its NW path for the next 24 hours before turning NNW throughout the forecast period. MALOU is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight...and will pass very close to the SW of Okinawa by tomorrow morning...then moving away from the area in the afternoon [2AM SEP 04: 25.4N 128.5E @ 75kph...2PM SEP 04: 26.9N 126.7E @ 85kph]. Its forward speed will slow down while over the East China Sea on Sunday morning [2AM SEP 05: 28.4N 125.5E @ 95kph...2PM SEP 05: 29.7N 124.7E @ 100kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center. Please be reminded that the forecast track of this cyclone is slightly similar to Typhoon KOMPASU (GLENDA) with a little deviation to the left of its track after 24 hours.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across the East China Sea reaching peak strength with near typhoon-force-winds...passing in between Shanghai and Cheju Island [2PM SEP 06: 31.3N 124.3E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintaining its peak strength as it begins to enter the Yellow Sea [2PM SEP 07: 33.2N 123.7E @ 110kph]
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to decay as it moves into unfavorable environment of the Yellow Sea...approaching the coastal areas of Shandong Province, China [2PM SEP 08: 35.7N 123.1E @ 85kph]
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
Its circulation not yet well organized while over the NE part of the Philippine Sea. An upper-level low (aka Tropical Upper Troposheric Trough) west of it is suppressing the development of MALOU, especially along the western quadrant. No hazards and effects from this cyclone are taking place as of this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 225 mm (Heavy) near the center of 10W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: LUZON including METRO MANILA, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MASBATE, BICOL REGION AND VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DEEPER
CONVECTION THAT IS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A TUTT CELL TO THE
WEST THAT IS IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 030516Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN THROUGH TAU
72. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO A WEAK STEERING
FLOW IN THE YELLOW SEA AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS MALOU WILL THEN
WEAKEN DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA AND
EXPOSURE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 48 THEN OFFER VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, ERRATIC STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 72 IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...(more)
>> MALOU, meaning: Agate. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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