for Tuesday, 21 September 2010 [5:58 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 20 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 21 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
13W is now internationally named as MALAKAS - a Filipino/Tagalog word for strong or powerful...continues to move very slowly towards the WSW. Its developing rain bands continues to affect the northern parts of the Northern Mariana Islands.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with an approaching TROPICAL WAVE - producing widespread showers, rains & heavy thunderstorms with squalls can be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE, East, or NE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Sep 21 2010
Location of Center: 18.2º N Lat 144.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 350 km (190 nm) NNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 815 km (440 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1,025 km (555 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,395 km (1,293 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
18-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-2 ft [0.3-0.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Sep 21
MALAKAS is expected to gradually turn westward tonight and eventually towards the NW tomorrow until Thursday. It will slowly intensify and become a Typhoon early tomorrow morning [2PM SEP 22: 18.7N 142.8E @ 100kph...2PM SEP 23: 20.8N 141.5E @ 140kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. MALAKAS will slowly gain strength through Thursday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Passing very close to Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) into Chichijima...near Category 3 strength [2PM SEP 24: 25.4N 142.0E @ 175kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Begins transition into an Extratropical Storm while moving fast NNE-ward [2PM SEP 25: 34.1N 146.9E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm...becomes Extratropical [2PM SEP 26: 43.8N 155.7E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MALAKAS barely moving as it continues to grow in size and consolidate while near Agrihan Island...most of its rain bands continues to affect the northern portions of the Northern Mariana Islands (from Agrihan down to Saipan). Strong gale-force winds can be expected along the northern islands of the Marianas including Saipan...becoming Tropical Storm Conditions over at Agrihan today (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy) near the center of MALAKAS, especially along the southern bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210654Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG A CONVERGENT
BAND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THE DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO ROUND
THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72. AS TS 13W APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY BY
TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 96, TS 13W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION
INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY THOUGH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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