Wednesday, September 01, 2010

TS LIONROCK [FLORITA] - Update #15

 


for Wednesday, 01 September 2010 [6:39 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).


LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 01 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #18/CWB RADAR
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

LIONROCK
(FLORITA) very near the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it tracks NNE-ward closer to Taiwan's West Coast. Scattered Eastern Rainbands soaking Western & Southern Taiwan.

Residents and visitors along Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands, SE China, and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Sep 01 2010
Location of Center [RADAR FIX]: 22.2º N Lat 119.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km (50 nm) WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 295 km (160 nm) SSE of Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 320 km (172 nm) NW of Basco, Batanes, PH
Distance 4: 460 km (250 nm) NNW of Laoag City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Taiwan Strait
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Sep 01

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TS LIONROCK is expected to turn Northward to WNW-ward in the direction of Southern Fujian throughout the forecast period...some strengthening is still likely later today [2PM SEP 01: 22.9N 119.4E @ 100kph]. The storm will be approaching the coast of Southern Fujian early tomorrow morning [2AM SEP 02: 23.8N 118.8E @ 100kph], and will make landfall just to the south of Xiamen City on or before lunchtime tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon thru the evening, LIONROCK will start to quickly dissipate as it moves across the mountainous terrain of Fujian Province [2PM SEP 02: 24.5N 117.5E @ 75kph...2AM SEP 03: 24.9N 116.2E @ 35kph]..

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 95 km/hr (50 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center.


*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

LIONROCK's circulation has reorganized overnight and is now exhibiting strong rain-cloud convection to the southwest of its low-level center. If the forecast track goes well, Tropical Storm Force Winds are expected to reach the western coast of Taiwan later today...and over Southern Fujian beginning early tomorrow morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, WESTERN BICOL, PARTS OF WESTERN VISAYAS AND THE BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
            


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 01 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 21.6N 119.3E.
*THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 311732Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND RECENT
RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER VALUES RANGING FROM 2.5 TO 3.5. TS 07W
IS TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL TURN WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BET-
WEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH. TS
07W IS STILL EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS 09W AROUND
TAU 36.
..(more)

>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon BayName contributed by: Hong Kong.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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