for Wednesday, 15 September 2010 [7:00 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 15 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 12W (UNNAMED) as it formed off the Northern Philippine Sea.
12W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 15 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
The strong disturbance off the Northern Philippine Sea has become Tropical Depression 12W (UNNAMED)...heading towards Taiwan-Okinawa Area. This system is not a threat to the Philippines at this time.
Residents and visitors along Batanes, Okinawa, Yaeyema and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 12W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (4 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Sep 15 2010
Location of Center: 20.0º N Lat 128.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 700 km (378 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 725 km (392 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 755 km (407 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 910 km (492 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-Okinawa Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- / (N/A)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Sep 15
12W is expected to slow down on its forward speed and intensify for the next 2 days while to the south of Okinawa. [2AM SEP 16: 20.5N 127.6E @ 65kph...2AM SEP 17: 21.1N 126.8E @ 95kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 kts) with higher gusts.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Drifting very slowly northward, while south of Okinawa...near typhoon status [2AM SEP 18: 21.5N 126.7E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon...accelerates NE-ward towards Okinawa-Ryukyus [2AM SEP 19: 22.6N 127.4E @ 120kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains Typhoon strength...passing SE of Okinawa [2AM SEP 20: 24.7N 128.8E @ 120kph].
>> Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that 12W will track towards Batanes Group of Islands or Taiwan - if the developing High Pressure Ridge to the north strengthens and steer the storm westward.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
12W's circulation is still consolidating. No effects and hazards are in place during this time until the next few days. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains and heavy thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light SE to variable winds (not in excess of 20 kph) can be expected along these areas today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 12W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 141255Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE
TIGHT LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (MAXIMUM OF 30 KNOTS) ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, WHICH IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND
LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TD 12W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN IT SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 12W SHOULD THEN TAKE A SHARP TURN
NORTHEASTWARD, SOUTH OF OKINAWA AROUND TAU 72 AND BEGIN TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION THAT
BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED OUTFLOW, TD 12W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AS TD 12W
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD, POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD INCREASE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH THE TUTT CELL TO THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS WHICH SHOW SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF
THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS
AND GFS MODELS, WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24
AND 48. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO SUGGESTS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
BUILD IN AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LATER
TAUS...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
*NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 12W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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