for Sunday, 29 August 2010 [2:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS 08W (UNNAMED) located to the SE of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.
08W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 08W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sun 29 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #02/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
The strong and rapidly developing disturbance to the SE of Okinawa has strengthened into Tropical Storm 08W (UNNAMED)...moving quickly in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyu Area. This system is likely to enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.
Residents and visitors along Ryukyus and Okinawa should closely monitor the progress of 08W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 29 2010
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 135.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 85 km (45 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1,015 km (547 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1,435 km (775 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Okinawa Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 110 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sun Aug 29
TS 08W is expected to continue moving generally WNW to NW-ward within the next 2 days and will strengthen into a severe tropical storm tomorrow morning [8AM AUG 30: 23.8N 131.3E @ 100kph]. It will then become a Category 1 Typhoon tomorrow evening after moving out of the P.A.R. [8PM AUG 30: 25.3N 128.8E @ 120kph]. The forecast track will bring the center of 08W - passing very close to Okinawa Island early Tuesday morning...more or less 40 km to the SW of Kadena Air Base at approximately 3:00 AM Tokyo Time...and will move away from Ryukyus around midday [8AM AUG 31: 27.2N 126.2E @ 140kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center of 08W.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: 08W will strengthen to Category 2 as it bears down the coast of Eastern China, about 100 km East of Shanghai, with tropical storm force winds affecting the area. [8AM SEP 01: 31.0N 122.4E @ 165kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Recurving sharply towards the NNE...weakens as it enters the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea [8AM SEP 02: 34.1N 122.2E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Becoming an Extratropical Cyclone while approaching the western coast of North Korea...downgrade to a Tropical Storm [8AM SEP 03: 37.3N 125.2E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
08W's circulation continues to quickly organize while racing towards the NW, closer to Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Storm Force Winds expected to reach Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands by tomorrow evening. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 110 mm (moderate) near the center of 08W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS 08W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282302Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT
A RAPIDLY IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE WELL-
dEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 08W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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