Wednesday, July 14, 2010

TS CONSON (BASYANG) now moving away from Metro Manila [Update #08]

 


for Wednesday, 14 July 2010 [5:45 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed July 14 2010):

BASYANG now over Manila Bay...Still continuing its 3-hrly advisories. on TY CONSON (BASYANG).


CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 110 kph

TROPICAL STORM CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 14 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #010
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • Tropical Storm CONSON (BASYANG) is now over Manila Bay or just off the southern coast of Bataan. This system passed very close south of Manila early this morning - or along Laguna-Cavite Area. Stormy weather continuing across Southern Tagalog Provinces.

    *Residents and visitors along Metro Manila, Central & Southern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Jul 13 2010
    Location of Center: 14.4º N Lat 120.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 85 km (45 nm) West of Metro Manila
    Distance 2: 45 km (25 nm) South of Subic Bay
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (85 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Very Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
    Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
    Towards: South China Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
    T2K TrackMap #010 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Wed Jul 14

    + Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to be over the South China Sea this morning. The 3 to 5-Day Long-Range Forecast shows the system making its final landfall on Saturday morning along Southern China or just west of Macau. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) rainbands will still continue to affect Metro Manila and nearby provinces. Strong winds w/ moderate to heavy rainfall to prevail this morning. Meanwhile, its inner and outer bands will continue to spread across Southern Tagalog Provinces and portions of Central Luzon. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (very heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Southern Tagalog Provinces, Western Luzon, and Manila Bay. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    In Effect:
    NO DATA (PAGASA WEBSITE OFFLINE).

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: NO DATA (PAGASA WEBSITE OFFLINE).

    External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Tue Jul 13
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) TUE 13 JULY POSITION: 14.5N 122.2E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT
    WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A 130455Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE
    SHOWS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WITH A SMALL
    MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THIS SIGNATURE ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
    RANGING FROM 45 TO 77 KNOTS SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65
    KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION
    BASED ON THE AMSR-E IMAGE. TY 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD
    MANILA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR
    DATA FROM LAOAG (98223) AND XISHA DAO (59981) INDICATE STRONG UPPER-
    LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AT 45-70 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA
    SEA. THEREFORE, TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
    ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON BUT SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
    NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    STR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE
    EXCEPTION OF THE GFS, WHICH DEPICTS AN ERRONEOUS NORTHWARD TRACK
    TOWARD TAIWAN. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE
    FORECAST PERIOD (BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
    STRENGTH OVER THE WARM WATER) DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
    CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR
    ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TY 03W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST
    OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AFTER TAU 96....
    (
    more)

    >> CONSON, meaning: A historical placeName contributed by: Vietnam.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) WED 14 JULY: NOT AVAILABLE...WEBSITE DOWN

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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