Wednesday, July 21, 2010

TS CHANTHU (CALOY) - Update #11

 


for Wednesday, 21 July 2010 [6:23 PM PhT]


click to get RSS data


<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to

2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.

powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed July 21 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on Tropical Storm CHANTHU (CALOY).


CHANTHU (CALOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU [CALOY/04W/1003]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 21 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #013
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • Tropical Storm CHANTHU (CALOY) crawling towards the NNW...approaching the Northern part of Hainan and Western Guangdong.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of CHANTHU.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Jul 21 2010
    Location of Center: 19.3º N Lat 112.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 200 km (108 nm) East of Qionghai, China
    Distance 2: 235 km (127 nm) ESE of Haikou, Hainan
    Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, Hainan
    Distance 4: 345 km (187 nm) SSW of Macau
    Distance 5: 375 km (202 nm) SW of Hong Kong
    Distance 6: 870 km (470 nm) WNW of Laoag City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    Towards: Northern Hainan-Western Guangdong
    Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
    Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Jul 21

    + Forecast Outlook: CHANTHU is expected to resume its NW track and will intensify slightly prior in making landfall near Zhanjiang City by tomorrow afternoon [2PM JUL 22: 21.1N 111.0E @ 100kph]. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows CHANTHU dissipating off China Friday through Saturday [2PM JUL 23: 23.0N 108.8E @ 45kph...2PM JUL 24: 23.7N 107.1E @ 30kph]. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that CHANTHU will track and cross the central or northern part of Hainan Island tonight -- if the strong High Pressure Ridge building north of Hong Kong strengthens more and steers the storm towards the West. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: CHANTHU's circulation remains over South China Sea, with strong winds equally distributed along the inner bands, close to the center. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Its outer (feeder) bands continues spreading across the Hainan and Western Guangdong. Meanwhile, the inner bands will be approaching Eastern Hainan later tonight, where winds of up to 70 kph expected. Light to moderate winds (20-40 kph) w/ occasional rains is likely along these bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 85 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) situated along the Southern and SE periphery of CHANTHU's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current ITCZ Intensity: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread afternoon or evening rains w/ strong thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF THE PHILIPPINES. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


    External Links for TS CHANTHU (CALOY)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
     
     


  • JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2PM (06 GMT) WED 21 JULY POSITION: 18.9N 112.8E.
    *THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TURN POLEWARD
    TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
    CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW
    AND RJTD, AND A 210609Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE STORM HAS TRACKED
    BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED
    THE SYSTEM. A 210228Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER, DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD SUGGEST THE LLCC MAY BE SLIGHTLY
    STRONGER. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST THE UPPER LEVEL
    ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION
    PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24...
    (
    more)

    >> CHANTHU, meaning: A kind of flowerName contributed by: Cambodia.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
     
    RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: NEW!


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS CHANTHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

    __._,_.___
    Recent Activity:
    MARKETPLACE

    Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.


    Get great advice about dogs and cats. Visit the Dog & Cat Answers Center.


    Hobbies & Activities Zone: Find others who share your passions! Explore new interests.

    .

    __,_._,___

    No comments: