Monday, July 19, 2010

TD 04W (CALOY) - Update #05

 


for Monday, 19 July 2010 [6:38 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon July 19 2010):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on Tropical Depression 04W (CALOY).


04W (CALOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [CALOY]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 19 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • Tropical Depression 04W (CALOY) weakened slightly after interacting with Luzon's terrain last night...currently reorganizing over the South China Sea...now moving away from Zambales.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China including Hong Kong and Macau should closely monitor the progress of 04W (CALOY).

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon Jul 19 2010
    Location of Center: 15.3º N Lat 119.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 105 km (57 nm) West of Iba, Zambales
    Distance 2: 150 km (80 nm) NW of Subic Bay/Olongapo
    Distance 3: 160 km (85 nm) SW of Dagupan City
    Distance 4: 240 km (130 nm) WNW of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
    Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (10 kts)
    Towards: South China Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    T2K TrackMap #005 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Mon Jul 19

    + Forecast Outlook: 04W is expected to turn WNW to NW-ward within the next 12 to 24 hours, and intensify to Tropical Storm strength early tomorrow [2AM JUL 20: 16.7N 117.1E @ 65kph]. It will eventually move NNW across the South China Sea towards Hong Kong, with peak strength of 100 kph on Wednesday [2AM JUL 21: 19.3N 115.9E @ 100kph]. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 04W making landfall to the east of Hong Kong by early Thursday morning [2AM JUL 22: 22.2N 114.7E @ 95kph]. It shall dissipate as it moves overland across mainland China on Thursday until Saturday [2AM JUL 23: 24.8N 113.7E @ 45kph...2AM JUL 24: 27.1N 113.1E @ 35kph].

    + Effects & Hazards: TD 04W's (CALOY) circulation slightly disorganized over the South China Sea. Its outer (feeder) bands continues to affect Zambales & Western Pangasinan. Light to moderate winds (10-30 kph) w/ occasional rains is likely along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) situated along the southern periphery of 04W's (CALOY) center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount

    + Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL, QUEZON, MINDORO, REST OF VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


    External Links for 04W (CALOY)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2AM (18 GMT) MON 19 JULY POSITION: 15.3N 119.0E.
    *ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
    SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE SYSTEM CAME OFFSHORE FROM LUZON JUST NORTH
    OF SUBIC BAY, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN
    PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, TD 04W TRACKED ON A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION
    STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW (AROUND 700 MB). THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED
    FROM A 181330Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF T1.5 TO
    T2.0 AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE
    181800Z OBSERVATION FROM SUBIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A
    MORE NORTHWESTWARD PATTERN AS IT INTENSIFIES AND GETS STEERED BY A
    LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NORTHWEST
    PACIFIC. TD 04W WILL PEAK AT 55 KNOTS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
    HONG-KONG AROUND TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR
    AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH GFS AS THE SOLE OUTLIER RIGHT
    OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PACK. THIS TRACK
    FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO COMPENSATE FOR GFS
    HAVING A SEVERE UNLIKELY PULL TO THE RIGHT...
    (
    more)
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 04W (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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