Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Typhoon NIDA (26W) - Update #027

 


for Wednesday, 02 December 2009 [7:12 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu November 26 2009):

We would like to inform our constant viewers of this website, that the T2K StormTrack (activetrack.gif) will only be created once the system poses a threat to the Philippines or is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 02 December 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #040 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon NIDA changes its movement towards the NNW...continues to weaken.

    *Cooler dry air, increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) and slightly lower sea surface temperatures are the ones that contribute for the weakening of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed Dec 02 2009
    Location of Eye: 21.5º N Lat 136.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 580 km (313 nm) SW of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 195 km (105 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,550 km (837 nm) ENE of Batanes, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    120 kph (65 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
    Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft (7.9 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 AM PST Wed Dec 02

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue moving NNW and weaken fast within the next 2 days. This system will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm later today as cold dry air, increasing upper level winds and cooler sea surface temperatures continues to enter its circulation. It will then start recurving towards the NE tomorrow afternoon (2PM Dec 03: 24.4N 136.0E). The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system becoming an Extratropical Cyclone while accelerating NE-ward on Friday and Saturday (2AM Dec 04: 26.4N 137.5E...2 AM Dec 05: 30.0N 141.7E). This recurvature scenario is due to an appoaching strong middle-latitude low pressure (aka. frontal system) digging from the north. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) near the center of NIDA. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional light rains can be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON, BICOL REGION, MASBATE AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected on these areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
     
  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 02 DECEMBER: 22.4N 135.9E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NNW @ 09 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 03 DECEMBER: 23.3N 135.6E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NE @ 11 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 04 DECEMBER: 26.4N 137.5E / 55-75 KPH (TD/XT) / NE @ 24 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 DECEMBER: 30.0N 141.7E / 45-65 KPH (XT) / --- @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 01 DECEMBER POSITION: 20.4N 137.7E.

    *A FINGER OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
    THE EAST HAS CONTINUED TO STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. ANIMATED
    INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH AN
    EMBEDDED CENTER WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 011011Z
    SSMIS MICRWOAVE IMAGE INDICATE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED
    SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
    SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ACCORDINGLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD,
    AND KNES HAVE DROPPED TO 55-65 KNOTS. TY NIDA IS STILL EXPECTED TO
    CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE RECURVING AHEAD OF
    A QUICKLY APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING NORTH OF
    CHINA. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE
    TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. BY 48 HOURS
    NIDA WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A VERY WEAK EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
    AND ITS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
    LATITUDES...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
      
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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