Tuesday, November 24, 2009

TS NIDA (26W) - Update #006

 


for Tuesday, 24 November 2009 [6:57 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon November 23 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph

TROPICAL STORM NIDA [26W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006

7:00 AM PST (23:00 GMT) Tue 24 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #008 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm NIDA (26W) rapidly intensifying south of Guam...may interact with TD URDUJA (27W) in the coming days.

    *Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue November 24 2009
    Location of Center: 8.7º N Lat 146.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 540 km (292 nm) SSE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 870 km (470 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 2,165 km (1,170 nm) East of Mindanao, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    95 kph (50 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
    Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
    Present Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
    Towards: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 AM PST Tue Nov 24

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue moving WNW for the next 24 to 36 hours and will intensify further. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning NW-ward as it strengthens to a Category 1 Typhoon on Wednesday afternoon (2pm Nov 25: 11.5N 141.9E). NIDA will maintain its NW track throughout the forecast period, reaching Category 3 status by early Sunday morning w/ winds of 195 kph (2am Nov 29: 17.8N 136.4E)...about 150 km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Based on this forecast, this system is not a threat to the Philippine Islands. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 26W is not yet affecting any major islands at this time.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
     

    External Links for TS NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 9.5N 144.6E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 17 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 10.5N 143.2E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 12.7N 140.9E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 13 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER: 14.9N 139.2E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / NW @ 09 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 24 NOVEMBER POSITION: 8.7N 146.3E.

    *ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS
    26W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 23/1621Z
    AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
    CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED
    ON THE MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
    ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
    PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER
    VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
    LOW NEAR 25N 165E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO STAIR-STEP AT
    THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS THE
    TRACK PHILOSOPHY. ECMWF FIELDS WERE ALSO USED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT
    TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY
    RATE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 26W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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