Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MIRINAE (SANTI) approaching Vietnam... [Update #019]

for Monday, 02 November 2009 [7:00 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun November 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MIRINAE (SANTI).

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 019
5:00 AM PST (21:00 GMT) Mon 02 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #027 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MIRINAE (SANTI) regained strength as it moves closer to the SE coast of Vietnam. Landfall expected this afternoon.

*Residents and visitors along Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to turn slightly WSW-ward and make landfall over Vietnam this afternoon...dissipating tonight or early tomorrow. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's radial circulation has slightly improved as it enters an area of favorable environment. This storm has started spreading its rainbands across Eastern and SE Vietnam. Gale to Tropical Storm Force Winds of up to 90 kph can be expected today. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 100 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PST Mon November 02 2009
Location of Center: 14.0º N Lat 111.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km (165 nm) NE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 415 km (225 nm) SE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 450 km (242 nm) NW of Pagasa Island
Distance 4: 1,045 km (565 nm) West of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Nov 02
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Nov 02
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Nov 02
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 13.4N 109.6E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WSW @ 24 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 03 NOVEMBER: 12.8N 107.1E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 02 NOVEMBER POSITION: 13.8N 112.2E.
*THE TRACK IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED TRACK SLIGHTLY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF MIRINAE.
INTENSITY WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS BUT BY TAU
12 THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS AS
MIRINAE STARTS TO MOVE OVER THE COAST OF VIETNAM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 23W REMAINS IN A DIVERGENT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, HOWEVER THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF MIRINAE.
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO BUFFER MIRINAE FROM WARMER SOURCES OF INFLOW
FROM THE SOUTH AS IT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE WESTERN HALF AND INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF TS 23W. TS 23W STILL REMAINS ISOLATED
FROM DRY AIR PENETRATING THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION ALLOWING FOR
THE CURRENT SUSTAINED INTENSITY VALUES TO PERSIST...(more)

>> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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