Monday, November 02, 2009

TD 97W (UNNAMED) - Update #001

 


for Monday, 02 November 2009 [7:33 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon November 02 2009):

Today, Typhoon2000.com is celebrating its 12th year Anniversary...Thank you for all your support. Meanwhile, T2K is initializing its 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD 97W (UNNAMED), which may threaten Northern Luzon.


97W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97W [UNNAMED]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 001

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 02 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Satfix & TCFA/JMA Warning
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) over the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon has developed into Tropical Depression 97W (UNNAMED)...currently moving towards the WNW...threatening Northern Luzon.

    *Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 97W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 97W is expected to track WNW to Westward within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2-day T2K Short-Range forecast shows the system crossing Extreme Northern Luzon via Cagayan tomorrow and will traverse Apayao and exit Luzon into the South China Sea thru Ilocos Provinces on Wednesday Nov 04. This system may weaken into a disturbance (LPA) as it crosses Extreme Northern Luzon due to a cold surge of Northeast Monsoon which will bring dry air into its circulation. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects: 97W's developing circulation continues to improve. This system is not yet affecting any parts of the Philippines, however if its forecast track continues, deteriorating weather conditions can be expected across Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight or tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon November 02 2009
    Location of Center: 18.0º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 490 km (265 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 2: 500 km (270 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 3: 530 km (285 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 4: 590 km (318 nm) NE of Naga City
    Distance 5: 605 km (325 nm) East of Laoag City
    Distance 6: 670 km (360 nm) NE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    45 kph (25 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
    Click to view:
    97W's Latest Wind Analysis new!
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    T2K TrackMap #01 (for Public): 6 AM PST Mon Nov 01
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    6 AM Mon Nov 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

  • T2K  12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 18.1N 125.5E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 19 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 03 NOVEMBER: 18.1N 123.4E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 20 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER: 17.7N 120.0E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH 

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
  • PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 16.4N 128.6E / SHALLOW LPA

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): N/A 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 97W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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