Monday, November 23, 2009

TD 26W (UNNAMED) - Update #004

 


for Monday, 23 November 2009 [12:36 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon November 23 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD 26W (UNNAMED).


26W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 23 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #005 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 26W (UNNAMED) still consolidating SSE of Guam...has slightly moved WNW with no change in strength.

    *Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 26W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon November 23 2009
    Location of Center: 8.2º N Lat 148.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 685 km (370 nm) SSE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,120 km (605 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 2,410 km (1,302 nm) East of Mindanao, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
    Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
    Towards: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    8 AM PST Mon Nov 23

    + Forecast Outlook: 26W is expected to continue moving WNW for the next 24 to 36 hours, intensifying into a tropical storm later today. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning NW-ward as it strengthens to a 100-kph storm by Wednesday morning [8am Nov 25: 10.8N 144.5E]. 26W will become a Category 1 Typhoon on Thursday morning...passing about 250 km West of Guam [8am Nov 26: 13.3N 142.6E]...and turning more to the NNW on Friday morning [8am Nov 27: 15.9N 140.9E] while about 500 km NW of Guam. 26W will reach Category 2 status by Saturday morning [8am Nov 28: 18.8N 139.5E] with forecast wind speeds of 165 kph...about 825 km NNW of Guam. Based on this forecast, this system will not threaten the Philippines. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 26W is not yet affecting any major islands at this time.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TD 26W (Unnamed)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 8.7N 148.0E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 09 KPH 
    8 AM (18 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 9.1N 147.1E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 15 KPH 
    8 AM (18 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 10.8N 144.5E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH
  • 8 AM (18 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 13.3N 142.6E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NNW @ 15 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 23 NOVEMBER POSITION: 8.1N 148.9E.

    *TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS REMAINED IN A WEAK GRADIENT LEVEL
    STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
    IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THE FEEDER BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER
    INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS
    SUBSIDED AND REDUCED IN AERIAL EXTENT. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS
    MARGINAL RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 222307Z
    AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE CI
    DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
    TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
    (
    more)


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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 26W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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