Saturday, November 28, 2009

Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) - Update #017

 


for Friday, 27 November 2009 [5:30 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu November 26 2009):

We would like to inform our constant viewers of this website, that the T2K StormTrack (activetrack.gif) will only be created once the system poses a threat to the Philippines or is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 kph

SUPER TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 27 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #022 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) continuing on a northerly path...maintained its strength...threatens Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands.

    *Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri Nov 27 2009
    Location of Eye: 18.2º N Lat 139.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 820 km (443 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 420 km (227 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,775 km (958 nm) East of Northern Luzon, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    240 kph (130 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
    Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 39 ft (11.8 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 PM PST Fri Nov 27

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue on its northward track and weakening phase as it begins recurvature for the the next 2 days...passing south of Iwo To on Sunday afternoon (2PM Nov 29: 22.4N 141.6E). The 3 to 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon and will begin to enter the mid-latitude westerly windflow (westerlies) & accelerate towards the ENE by Monday afternoon (2PM Nov 30: 25.6N 146.3E)...about 455 km ESE of Chichi Jima Island. NIDA will continue to move faster ENE-ward across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean and become Extratropical by Tuesday afternoon (2PM Dec 01: 31.2N 157.0E). Based on this forecast, this system will no longer enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA's southeastern outer rainbands has started to lift away from the Marianas thus slightly improved weather can be expected today until the coming days. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny, clear to cloudy skies & light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 30 kph) with occasional rains, squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, QUEZON, MASBATE, & NORTHERN VISAYAS.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for STY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER: 19.1N 139.1E / 240-295 KPH (STY-Cat 4) / NNE @ 11 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER: 20.2N 139.4E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NE @ 11 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 29 NOVEMBER: 22.4N 141.6E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NE @ 24 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 30 NOVEMBER: 25.6N 146.3E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NE @ 50 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 27 NOVEMBER POSITION: 17.8N 139.2E.

    *DUE TO ITS NORTHWARD TRACK, IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
    HAS APPROACHED THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
    ADDITIONALLY, A 270000Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM GUAM REPORTED SOUTH-
    SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
    DEPICTS A 30-NM EYE WITH AN ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
    HOWEVER, A 270341Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY WRAPPED
    BANDING AND A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL THAT HAS CONSTRICTED A BIT OVER THE
    LAST 18 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS REMAINED
    STEADY AT 130 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
    (127 KNOTS) AND RJTD (140 KNOTS). STY NIDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
    SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THROUGH 24 HOURS,
    THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND
    ACCELERATING INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. AFTER 48 HOURS, NIDA WILL BEGIN
    TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT FACES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
    COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY 72 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
    TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 96 NIDA WILL
    COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on STY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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