Sunday, November 29, 2009

Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) downgraded to Category 4... [Update #021]

 


for Sunday, 29 November 2009 [7:18 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu November 26 2009):

We would like to inform our constant viewers of this website, that the T2K StormTrack (activetrack.gif) will only be created once the system poses a threat to the Philippines or is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 kph

SUPER TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 29 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #028 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) nearly stationary...downgraded to Category 4.

    *Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun Nov 29 2009
    Location of Eye: 19.3º N Lat 139.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 645 km (348 nm) SSW of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 450 km (240 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,790 km (965 nm) ENE of Extreme N.Luzon, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    240 kph (130 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
    Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
    Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft (11.2 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 AM PST Sun Nov 29

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA's forecast outlook has changed - now depicting the alternate scenario but as a dissipating system. This howler is expected to drift very slowly northward and will start decaying within the next 2 days. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded to a Tropical Storm as strong upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear) starts to affect the typhoon by early morning Wednesday (2AM Dec 02: 22.2N 141.0E)...about 290 km South of Iwo To. NIDA will continue to rapidly decay - turning more to the West and dissipate to the SSW of Iwo To beginning Thursday until Friday (2AM Dec 03: 22.9N 141.0E...2AM Dec 4: 23.1N 140.3E). There are still some models that forecast the weakening system moving more to the West to WSW into the Philippine Sea due to the strong surge of NE Monsoon (Amihan) approaching from China. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA still over open seas, barely moving. This howler is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) near the center or EyeWall of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny, clear to cloudy skies with possible passing rains, squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN LUZON. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected on these areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for STY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 29 NOVEMBER: 19.5N 139.6E / 220-270 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NNE @ 04 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 30 NOVEMBER: 19.9N 139.8E / 205-250 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NE @ 05 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 01 DECEMBER: 21.0N 140.4E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NNE @ 05 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 02 DECEMBER: 22.2N 141.0E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / N @ 04 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 29 NOVEMBER POSITION: 19.2N 139.4E.

    *ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE
    PAST 06 HOURS AND AN IRREGULAR 20-NM EYE. LATEST TRMM IMAGE, HOWEVER, STILL
    SHOWS A ROUND EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
    BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND RECENT
    ERRATIC, SLOW MOTION BASED ON IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    STILL INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
    OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
    BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THIS
    FORECAST REFLECTS A SIGNIFICANT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CHANGE FROM A RE-
    CURVE SCENARIO TO A DISSIPATION SCENARIO (IN ACCORDANCE WITH OUR
    PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ALTERNATE SCENARIO). NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
    IN POOR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF AIDS (UKMO, ECMWF, TC-
    LAPS, JGSM, NOGAPS) SUPPORT A DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH GFS, WBAR
    AND GFDN STILL INDICATING A RE-CURVE TRACK. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE
    DISSIPATION SCENARIO AND IS BASED ON ANALYSES, WHICH SHOW THE LOW-
    LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, THE MID-
    LEVEL STEERING RIDGE EAST, AND ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS
    WILL PRODUCE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT WILL SERVE TO
    RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD, AFTER
    36 HOURS. STY 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 72
    HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. AFTER 72 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL
    WEAKEN TO 25-30 KNOT STRENGTH AND WILL BEGIN TO TRACK UNDER THE LOW-
    LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS....
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on STY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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