for Thursday, 29 October 2009 [6:54 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).
MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) continues to threaten a wide-swath of areas in Luzon with landfall projection either Aurora or Northern Quezon...now tracking Westward during the past 3 hours.
*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook continues to change more to south matching the ECMWF (European) guidance model...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast now shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 150 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM. The core (eye and eyewall) will pass over Polillo Island around 2 AM Saturday and make landfall over Northern Quezon just north of Infanta between 5-6 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Bulacan, Pampanga around 10 AM - passing about 25 km. North of Quezon City and will be over Subic Bay/Olongapo City area at around 2 PM Saturday. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Sunday, November 01 and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm before making its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. It will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has slightly weakened but its wind speed remained intact. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region can be expected beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 16.0º N Lat 129.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 640 km (345 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 680 km (368 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 715 km (387 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 760 km (410 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 810 km (437 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 865 km (467 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon-Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #02 (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Oct 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND POLILLO ISLAND.
The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: CAMARINES PROVINCES, CATANDUANES, REST OF QUEZON, RIZAL, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, QUIRINO, IFUGAO, AND ISABELA.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) .
JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 15.5N 127.7E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 24 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on SANTI!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).
MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook continues to change more to south matching the ECMWF (European) guidance model...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast now shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 150 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM. The core (eye and eyewall) will pass over Polillo Island around 2 AM Saturday and make landfall over Northern Quezon just north of Infanta between 5-6 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Bulacan, Pampanga around 10 AM - passing about 25 km. North of Quezon City and will be over Subic Bay/Olongapo City area at around 2 PM Saturday. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Sunday, November 01 and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm before making its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. It will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has slightly weakened but its wind speed remained intact. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region can be expected beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 16.0º N Lat 129.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 640 km (345 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 680 km (368 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 715 km (387 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 760 km (410 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 810 km (437 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 865 km (467 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon-Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #02 (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Oct 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND POLILLO ISLAND.
The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: CAMARINES PROVINCES, CATANDUANES, REST OF QUEZON, RIZAL, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, QUIRINO, IFUGAO, AND ISABELA.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides..
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 15.5N 127.7E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 15.1N 125.0E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 14.9N 120.0E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 26 KPH [LANDFALL]
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 14.8N 114.2E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 14.9N 120.0E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 26 KPH [LANDFALL]
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 14.8N 114.2E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 26 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 29 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.8N 130.6E.
*ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 23W
HAS LOST SOME OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER BUT HAS
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL WIND SPEED OF 90 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITS MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE
STRONG WESTERLIES ARE ENHANCING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM.
TY MIRINAE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TY 23W IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON AFTER TAU 36. MIRINAE WILL THEN EMERGE IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS CENTRAL VIETNAM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE.
THIS FORECAST IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JTWC CONSENSUS ALONG WITH ECMWF
AND JGSM...(more)
>> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 15.8N 129.9E / WEST @ 20 kph / 150 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
____________
RECENT TYPHOON2000.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE )____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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