Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE (Pre-SANTI) approaching PAR... [Update #007]

 


for Wednesday, 28 October 2009 [12:08 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Please be advised that the 6-hrly SMS Updates will start once it enters PAR. Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (23W).


MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Wed 28 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI) moving closer quickly to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...wind speeds now at 140 kph...threatens Eastern Luzon.

    *Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days, will enter PAR tonight approx 8 PM. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning a little WSW beginning tomorrow evening...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on early Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (185 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall just north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday afternoon Oct 31 and cross Northern Aurora, Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: MIRINAE continues to pick up strength along the warm waters of the Western Pacific...its circulation continues to improve, with the appearance of a small-ragged EYE. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of its outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
     

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed October 28 2009
    Location of Eye: 16.3º N Lat 137.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 2: 1,415 km (765 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
    Distance 3: 1,620 km (875 nm) East of Aurora
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    140 kph (75 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
    6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 31 kph (17 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: S.Isabela-N.Aurora Area
    Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Wed Oct 28
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Wed Oct 28
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Oct 28
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 16.7N 135.1E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 28 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 17.0N 132.0E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 24 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 17.1N 126.9E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / W @ 17 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 16.7N 123.3E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 15 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 28 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.2N 138.5E.
    *TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE) IS TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST
    12 HOURS AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO 75 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
    FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD CURRENTLY SUPPORT INTENSITIES FROM 75 TO 90
    KNOTS. THIS FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD
    ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS SHOWN A WELL
    DEFINED EYE HAS DEVELOPED, AND IS BEGINNING TO BE APPARENT IN
    MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AS WELL. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
    REMAINED WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE MID-
    LATITUDE TROUGH NORTH OF TY 23W THAT HAS STARTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE
    NORTHEAST. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN IN THE UPPER
    LEVEL HAS STARTED TO REPLACE THE TROUGH AS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING ZONAL
    FLOW HAS SUPPORTED THE RECENT INTENSITY CHANGE OBSERVED. RADIAL
    OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE
    LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TY 23W, HAS MAINTAINED AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
    CHANNEL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...
    (
    more)

    >> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky WayName contributed by: Korea.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (23W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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