for Thursday, 22 October 2009 [12:11 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 21 2009):
Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)
LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #033
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slowed down further near the NE coast of Cagayan...new forecast shows a turn to the WNW to NW in the coming days, and may spare Cagayan on a direct hit.
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving WSW w/in the next 24 to 36 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to minimal Category 2 (160 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning west to WNW-ward slowly into the Balintang Channel, passing very close to the Northern coastal areas of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurving towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. This scenario is likely as half of the many models deviates from the existing forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea...however, its outer rainbands continues to affect Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora since last night. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely if the forecast track pushes through in the coming days. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu October 22 2009
Location of Eye: 18.9º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 310 km (168 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 310 km (168 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 320 km (173 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 330 km (178 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 340 km (185 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 6: 420 km (227 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 600 km (325 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 605 km (327 nm) Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan's Northern Coast
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #023 (for Public): 12 PM PST Thu Oct 22
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 22
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 22
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, & APAYAO.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, & AURORA.
The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight or tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: PANGASINAN, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.
JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
8 PM (12 GMT) 22 OCTOBER: 18.7N 124.3E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WSW @ 04 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on RAMIL!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 21 2009):
Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)
LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #033
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving WSW w/in the next 24 to 36 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to minimal Category 2 (160 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning west to WNW-ward slowly into the Balintang Channel, passing very close to the Northern coastal areas of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurving towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. This scenario is likely as half of the many models deviates from the existing forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea...however, its outer rainbands continues to affect Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora since last night. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely if the forecast track pushes through in the coming days. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu October 22 2009
Location of Eye: 18.9º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 310 km (168 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 310 km (168 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 320 km (173 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 330 km (178 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 340 km (185 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 6: 420 km (227 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 600 km (325 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 605 km (327 nm) Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan's Northern Coast
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #023 (for Public): 12 PM PST Thu Oct 22
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 22
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 22
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, & APAYAO.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, & AURORA.
The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight or tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: PANGASINAN, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides..
8 PM (12 GMT) 22 OCTOBER: 18.7N 124.3E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WSW @ 04 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 18.6N 124.0E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WSW @ 04 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 18.5N 123.1E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 18.6N 122.6E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 18.5N 123.1E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 18.6N 122.6E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 02 KPH
REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 22 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.9N 124.8E.
*THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST.
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN
RIDGE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE STR TO THE EAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND CURRENTLY
OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORS A POLEWARD TURN BY TAU 24. HOWEVER, CURRENT
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DOES NOT REVEAL A CLEAR PICTURE
OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...(more)
>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 10 AM (02 GMT) 22 OCTOBER: 18.8N 124.7E / WSW Slowly / 160 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
____________
RECENT TYPHOON2000.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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