Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LUPIT (RAMIL) -[Update #034

for Sunday, 25 October 2009 [7:14 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun October 25 2009):

T2K has released the final updates on LUPIT (RAMIL) via SMS (text) and the Philippine List Email Updates, as it exits the PAR. The Asia-Pacific Email List will continue releasing updates but only every 12 hours, while, the 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) continues.

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 034
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 25 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #046
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...now moving away from Okinawa.

*Residents and visitors along the coasts of Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to move NE-ward rapidly towards the coast of Southern Honshu. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows LUPIT becoming an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone on Tuesday afternoon, Oct 27.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to deteriorate. Its rainbands spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus and is now approaching SW Japan...rains and winds of not in excess of 95 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 75 to 100 mm (moderate rain) near the center of LUPIT especially along its northern part. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan & Taiwan.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA] continues to organize as it moves West slowly. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 48 to 72 hours...currently located near lat 11.5N lon 153.9E...or about 1,010 km ESE of Guam...2,060 km East of P.A.R...3,075 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (8AM Oct 25) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - continues to show this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous tropical storm or minimal typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-Polillo-NCR/Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun October 25 2009
Location of Center: 25.5º N Lat 129.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km (97 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 785 km (425 nm) East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 940 km (508 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 75-100 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Honshu's Coast
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sun Oct 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Oct 25
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Oct 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 26.4N 131.0E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / NE @ 42 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 29.3N 135.0E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NE @ 55 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 38.9N 148.7E / 85-100 KPH (XT) / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 25 OCTOBER POSITION: 24.9N 128.5E.
*ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ERODED ITS VERTICAL STRUCTURE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWING
AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND ON RADAR FIXES FROM JAPAN. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, KNES, AND
PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS DEPICTED BY THE THICKNESS PACKING ON THE
250000Z 1000-500 MB THICKNESS CHART. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, IT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND
BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET) BY TAU 48. DESPITE THE HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
INTACT AND MAINTAIN TS INTENSITY UP TO ET STATUS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST.
..(more)

>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 25.1N 128.9E / ENE @ 15 kph / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 24-HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=LUPIT)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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