Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY)

for Monday, 28 September 2009 [7:22 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon September 28 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY KETSANA (ONDOY). Meanwhile, a massive flooding has occured last Saturday across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City recorded a new record rainfall accumulation of 455 mm (17.9 inches) in 24 hours, erasing the previous record of 335 mm (13.2 inches) which fell in June 1967. Click here for a more detailed rain reports from land-based stations..

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr

TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) approaching Category 2 strength as it rapidly intensifies...endangers Southern Hainan and Vietnam.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West and shall reach the coast of Vietnam tomorrow morning. Landfall is likely along Central Vietnam near the City of Hue tomorrow afternoon. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system dissipating rapidly along Laos on Wednesday Sep 30.

+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained large and organized...its western outer rainbands is now spreading across Central & Southern Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Coastal Guangdong Province (China) and is now moving into Laos. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along the path of CHOI-WAN especially over Central Vietnam beginning tonight as the inner bands and the EYEWALL approaches the coast. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 (moderate-heavy rain) up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (extreme rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes w/c can cause widespread massive flooding & landslides. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Eye: 16.1º N Lat 111.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km (162 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 395 km (215 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 755 km (408 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 960 km (518 nm) West of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Central Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,575 km (850 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.6 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Mon Sep 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 15.9N 110.3E / 165-205 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 2) / W @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 16.1N 108.7E / 150-185 KPH (Typhooh-Cat 1) / W @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 16.4N 105.9E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Depression) / - @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.8N 111.9E.
*WITH LESS THAN 36 HOURS REMAINING OVER OPEN WATER, THE TYPHOON IS
EXPECTED TO REACH A MAX INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY 15 KNOTS SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD,
INDICATING AN 80 TO 90 KNOT SYSTEM. A 25 TO 30 NM RAGGED EYE HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK, WITH JGSM AND EGRR
ERRONEOUSLY STALLING THE SYSTEM ONCE IT COMES ASHORE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 25 FEET...(more)

>> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEM)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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