Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W)

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) - Update #022

for Sunday, 20 September 2009 [8:29 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY CHOI-WAN (15W).

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 022
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 20 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #032
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) continues to accelerate and weaken while moving across the open sea.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue rapidly accelerating towards the NE to ENE-ward across the upper portion of the NW Pacific Ocean w/in the next 24 hours. It shall become an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's weakening circulation remains at open sea...no effects to any major islands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun September 20 2009
Location of Eye: 33.3º N Lat 146.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 670 km (362 nm) ESE of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 2: 805 km (435 nm) NE of Chichi Jima
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 42 kph (23 kts)
General Direction: NW Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft (10.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sun Sep 20
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Sat Sep 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Sep 20
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 35.4N 149.2E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / ENE @ 48 KPH

2 AM (06 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 37.7N 155.0E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / ENE @ 55 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 39.6N 162.4E / 75-95 KPH (Extratropical Cyclone) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 32.3N 145.1E.
^RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CLOUD
SHIELD TO THE NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY ERODING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH-
ERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE CONVECTION IS BEING AFFECTED BY DRY MID-
LATITUDE AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
NEARLY EXPOSING THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TY 15W HAS MAINTAINED TYPHOON INTENSITY DESPITE
SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
TY 15W IS BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) DUE TO INTER-
ACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 15W IS EXPERIENCING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM OVER
CENTRAL JAPAN. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
HIGHER VWS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE
DEEPER CONVECTION, BUT THE WIND FIELD WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY AS THE
SYSTEM FINISHES THE ET PROCESS AROUND TAU 36...(more)

>> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful Cloud. Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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