Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W)

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) - Update #021

for Saturday, 19 September 2009 [6:54 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY CHOI-WAN (15W).

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 021
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 19 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

CHOI-WAN (15W) rapidly breaking down as it enters unfavorable atmospheric conditions aloft...just a Category 1 Typhoon.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue rapidly accelerating towards the NE to ENE-ward across the upper portion of the NW Pacific Ocean. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows CHOI-WAN speeding up towards the NE to ENE, weakening into a strong Tropical Storm tomorrow. It shall become an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow evening or on Monday Sep 21.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's deteriorating main core remains at open seas...its southern outer bands has started to move away from Chichi Jima Island, where strong winds w/ light rains can still be expected this evening. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat September 19 2009
Location of Eye: 30.2º N Lat 143.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 355 km (192 nm) NNE of Chichi Jima
Distance 2: 685 km (370 nm) SSE of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 46 kph (25 kts)
General Direction: NW Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Sep 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Sat Sep 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sat Sep 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 31.8N 144.2E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / NE @ 35 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 34.4N 147.6E / 100-130 KPH (Tropical Storm) / ENE @ 37 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 38.6N 158.1E / 75-95 KPH (Extratropical Cyclone) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 29.0N 141.4E.
^TY 15W HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAS
SEEN INCREASED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW,
WHICH HAS STARTED TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO ANALYSIS POSITIONS
TO REFLECT ADDITIONAL DATA AVAILABLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.5/5.5 BY PGTW AND A 4.5 FROM
RJTD. THE SYSTEM STILL REMAINS FAIRLY INTENSE AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
WILL REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSITION
WITH THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH COMPLETION BY TAU 48...(more)

>> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful Cloud. Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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