Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS PARMA (Pre-PEPENG) threatens Palau... [Update #004]

for Tuesday, 29 September 2009 [12:42 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue September 29 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PRE-PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 19W (PRE-PEPENG) is now internationally known as PARMA as it continues to gain strength...still on a WSW track...threatens the Republic of Palau.

*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of PARMA (PRE-PEPENG).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to resume its Westward movement w/in the next 12 hours, before heading WNW-ward. It shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or Thursday morning. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the NW while over the Philippine Sea...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon when it is about 800 km. to the East of Bicol Region on Friday morning, Oct 02. PARMA shall be about 600 km to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands by Monday morning, October 4. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve with expanding spiral outer bands on all quadrants except the southern portion...its western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi-Yap Islands and Palau Island. Passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 100 mm near the center of this storm.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread showers, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, SOUTHERN LUZON, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN, & WESTERN VISAYAS.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TS 19W (PRE-PEPENG) remains weak as it tracks WNW-ward passing just north of Chuuk Island. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) to make landfall along Central Vietnam later this afternoon. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 7.8º N Lat 139.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km (112 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 465 km (250 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,510 km (815 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,850 km (998 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Yap-Ulithi-Palau Area
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Very Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 8.5N 138.4E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 15 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 31 SEPTEMBER: 9.3N 137.0E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 11.3N 134.2E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 14.0N 131.6E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat1) / NW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 8.2N 139.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM
THE NORTH AND SOUTH; OF NOTE IS THE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM HAS LINKED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W LOCATED TO
THE EAST. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AND CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. A 290028Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STEER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST, AND IS IN A
REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A
REGION OF EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS PROVIDING MODERATE
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. THE RECENT MOTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
ATTRIBUTED TO INTERACTION WITH TD 18W AS THE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE
TWO GETS SMALLER...(more)

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RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 19W (PRE-PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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