Thursday, September 10, 2009

TS MUJIGAE (MARING) threatens Hainan Island... [Update #005]

 


for Thursday, 10 September 2009 [11:56 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 10 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MUJIGAE (MARING).


MUJIGAE (MARING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MUJIGAE [MARING/14W/0913]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 10 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • 14W (MARING) becomes a Tropical Storm and has been named internationally as MUJIGAE...still heading towards Hainan Island and Western Guangdong.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern and Southwestern China & Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of MUJIGAE.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MUJIGAE is expected to track more to the West for the next 24 hours. The 2 to 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system making landfall over Hainan Island tomorrow morning...entering Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow evening as a weakened depression. It shall make its final landfall off Northern Vietnam on Saturday evening, Sep 12 and dissipate on Sunday Sep 13.

    + Effects: MUJIGAE's compact and partially-exposed circulation remains at sea but its western rainbands has begun to spread across the coastal areas of Hainan and Western Guangdong. Deteriorating tropical storm conditions can be expected later tonight as the system moves ashore. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along MUJIGAE's rainbands.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, & WESTERN MINDORO.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) New Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) developing off the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 11.8N lon 136.5E...or about 1,210 km East of Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...moving WNW slowly.

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 48 to 72 hours. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu September 10 2009
    Location of Center: 19.3º N Lat 114.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 335 km (180 nm) South of Hong Kong
    Distance 2: 325 km (175 nm) SSE of Macau
    Distance 3: 380 km (205 nm) ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
    Distance 4: 435 km (235 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, China
    Distance 5: 695 km (375 nm) WNW of Laoag City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
    General Direction: Hainan Island
    Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    HKO TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Thu Sep 10
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Thu Sep 10
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Sep 10
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 19.1N 112.8E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 19.2N 110.8E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 19.5N 107.1E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 09 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 19.9N 105.0E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / WNW @ 09 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 18.9N 114.8E.
    *TD 14W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN
    PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON A 092330Z PGTW POSITION FIX AND A 092324Z SSMIS
    PASS SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
    WITH RECENT QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND DVORAK T-NUMBER
    ESTIMATES OF T=2.0 FROM PGTW AND T=2.5 FROM RJTD. A BURST OF DEEP
    CONVECTION, AIDED BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINES,
    HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE LLCC. HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS CONFINED
    THIS CONVECTION TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC...
    (
    more)

    >> MUJIGAE, meaning: RainbowName contributed by: DPR Korea.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MUJIGAE (MARING)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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