for Sunday, 27 September 2009 [12:26 AM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat September 26 2009):
Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS KETSANA (ONDOY). Meanwhile, a massive flooding has occured yesterday across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden has recorded a new record rainfall of 345 mm. in just 6 hours. Almost 24 hours of rainfall now around 500 mm.
KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #007
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) has quickly moved out of Central Luzon and is now along the coast of Zambales...currently gaining strength. Its heavy rainbands is no longer affecting Metro Manila.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue to move on a Westerly track, exiting PAR tomorrow night. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 4-day medium-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength on Monday evening, Sep 28 and shall turn WNW in the direction of Northern Vietnam. KETSANA shall make its final landfall over Vietnam, just to the WNW of Hue City by early Wednesday morning, Sep 30. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Thursday Oct 01.
+ Effects: KETSANA's strong mid-level circulation, together with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) has re-emerge over the South China Sea...Rapid reorganizing of this system is ongoing at this time. Its developing eastern outer rainbands affecting Zambales, Tarlac and Pangasinan. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected early this morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Manila Bay, Mindoro & Zambales. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to intensify...currently located near lat 11.2 lon 160.6E...or about 1,735 km ESE of Guam or 3,800 km. East of Southern Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph... forecast to move Westward@ 15 kph.
This system is expected to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.6º N Lat 118.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 33 kph (18 kts)
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #12 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12 GMT Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Sat Sep 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ZAMBALES.
The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, PANGASINAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, BATAAN, RIZAL, CAVITE, & LUBANG ISLAND.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
8 AM (00 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.6N 117.0E / 75-95 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts on ONDOY!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat September 26 2009):
Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS KETSANA (ONDOY). Meanwhile, a massive flooding has occured yesterday across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden has recorded a new record rainfall of 345 mm. in just 6 hours. Almost 24 hours of rainfall now around 500 mm.
KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #007
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue to move on a Westerly track, exiting PAR tomorrow night. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 4-day medium-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength on Monday evening, Sep 28 and shall turn WNW in the direction of Northern Vietnam. KETSANA shall make its final landfall over Vietnam, just to the WNW of Hue City by early Wednesday morning, Sep 30. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Thursday Oct 01.
+ Effects: KETSANA's strong mid-level circulation, together with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) has re-emerge over the South China Sea...Rapid reorganizing of this system is ongoing at this time. Its developing eastern outer rainbands affecting Zambales, Tarlac and Pangasinan. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected early this morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to intensify...currently located near lat 11.2 lon 160.6E...or about 1,735 km ESE of Guam or 3,800 km. East of Southern Philippines.
This system is expected to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.6º N Lat 118.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 33 kph (18 kts)
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #12 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12 GMT Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Sat Sep 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ZAMBALES.
The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, PANGASINAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, BATAAN, RIZAL, CAVITE, & LUBANG ISLAND.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
8 AM (00 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.6N 117.0E / 75-95 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.8N 115.2E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 15 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 16.3N 111.6E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / WNW @ 17 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 17.1N 108.0E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / WNW @ 17 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 16.3N 111.6E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / WNW @ 17 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 17.1N 108.0E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / WNW @ 17 KPH
REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.5N 119.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KETSANA) HAS MAINTAINED A WESTWARD
COURSE ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPCONVECTION STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA, INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS LUZON. THE CURRENTPOSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW AND RJTD. THERE IS
ONLY A FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND THE LACK OF USABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES WHICH DEPICT 30-KNOT WINDS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM..(more)
>> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 10 PM (14 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.1N 119.4E / WNW @ 19 kph / 85 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
____________
RECENT TYPHOON2000.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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