Saturday, September 05, 2009

TS DUJUAN (LABUYO) - Update #009

 


for Saturday, 05 September 2009 [7:15 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 02 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO).


DUJUAN (LABUYO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN [LABUYO/03W/0912]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 05 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm DUJUAN (LABUYO) continuing moving ENE away from the Philippine Sea.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern Japan & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of DUJUAN (LABUYO).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: DUJUAN is expected to continue accelerating towards the NE or NNE across the warm Northern Philippine Sea for the next 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon Sep 08 and likewise becoming a minimal Typhoon. It shall be approaching the Southern Coast of Honshu, Japan on Wednesday Sep 09.

    + Effects: DUJUAN's broad circulation continues to hover across the Northern Philippine Sea with no land areas affected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 150 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of DUJUAN.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON, WESTERN BICOL REGION INCLUDING MASBATE, PARTS OF THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat September 05 2009
    Location of Center: 19.6º N Lat 132.5º E Lon
    Distance 1: 895 km (485 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 2: 1,100 km (593 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 3: 1,155 km (625 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (40 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: ENE @ 22 kph (12 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Japan
    Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sat Sep 05
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Fri Sep 04
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Sep 05
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 05 SEPTEMBER: 21.1N 133.8E / 75-95 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNE @ 19 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 SEPTEMBER: 22.9N 134.6E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / N @ 17 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 07 SEPTEMBER: 26.4N 135.1E / 130-160 KPH (Typhoon-CAT1) / NNE @ 09 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 08 SEPTEMBER: 28.4N 135.8E / 140-165 KPH (Typhoon-CAT1) / NE @ 19 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.4N 132.3E.
    THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
    051730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
    THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK
    VALUES OF T=2.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. TS 13W IS TRACKING ALONG A
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
    CIRCULATION. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
    POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SUBTROPICAL STEERING
    RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, THE TS 13W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD
    AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE INTO THE
    MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL
    TRANSITION BY TAU 120. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
    THROUGH TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL USHER IN
    A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...
    (
    more)

    >> DUJUAN, meaning: AzaleaName contributed by: China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 05 SEPTEMBER: 19.1N 131.6E / NE @ 13 kph / 75 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO/13W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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