Friday, September 04, 2009

TS DUJUAN (LABUYO) - Update #007

 


for Friday, 04 September 2009 [1:10 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 02 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO).


DUJUAN (LABUYO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN [LABUYO/03W/0912]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 04 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm DUJUAN (LABUYO) tracking Northeastward across the Northern Philippine Sea...Outer rainbands has left the Bicol Region.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern Japan & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of DUJUAN (LABUYO).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: DUJUAN is expected to accelerate to the NE or NNE across the warm Northern Philippine Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday Sep 08 and becoming a minimal Typhoon on Monday Sep 07. It shall be approaching the Southern Coast of Honshu, Japan on Wednesday Sep 09.

    + Effects: Broad circulation of DUJUAN remains over the Northern Philippine Sea and is no longer affecting the Bicol Region. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 5 up to 10 mm can be expected along the Bicol Region, increasing to 200 mm along the storm's inner rain bands...Isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm is possible near the center of DUJUAN.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 45 kph with occasional thunderstorms and rains can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, WESTERN BICOL REGION INCLUDING MASBATE, WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) partially exposed near the coast of Vietnam but may develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours...currently located near lat 15.4N lon 109.2E...or about 130 km SE of Da Nang, Vietnam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...Quasi-Stationary.


    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri September 04 2009
    Location of Center: 17.8º N Lat 129.8º E Lon
    Distance 1: 860 km (465 nm) East of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 2: 860 km (465 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 3: 870 km (470 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NE @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Japan
    Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Fri Sep 04
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Fri Sep 04
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Sep 04
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: CAGAYAN & ISABELA.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 04 SEPTEMBER: 18.4N 130.3E / 75-95 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NE @ 19 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 05 SEPTEMBER: 19.8N 131.9E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NE @ 20 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 06 SEPTEMBER: 24.0N 134.0E / 100-130 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNE @ 11 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 07 SEPTEMBER: 26.2N 134.6E / 120-150 KPH (Typhoon) / NNE @ 11 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 17.5N 129.1E.
    THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
    EXTENSION BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION
    IS BASED ON RECENT PGTW AND RJTD POSITION FIXES AND FROM ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
    BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SEVERAL REPORTING AGENCIES. TS 13W IS
    SITUATED SOUTH AND WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN AN
    AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-
    TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES
    CELSIUS....
    (
    more)

    >> DUJUAN, meaning: AzaleaName contributed by: China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 04 SEPTEMBER: 17.4N 128.7E / NE @ 9 kph / 75 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS DUJUAN (LABUYO/13W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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