Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS 19W (Pre-PEPENG) moving WSW... [Update #003]

for Tuesday, 29 September 2009 [5:23 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue September 29 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS 19W (PRE-PEPENG).

19W (PRE-PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 19W [PRE-PEPENG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #005
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

19W (PRE-PEPENG) strengthened into a Tropical Storm as it turns WSW closer to Yap and Ulithi Islands in Western Micronesia.

*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of 19W (PRE-PEPENG).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 19W is expected to continue moving due West for the next 24 hours...shall start turning more WNW then NW-ward later and entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system still tracking to the NW while over the Philippine Sea...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon when it is about 600 km. to the NE of Bicol Region on Friday evening, Oct 02 or early Saturday morning, Oct 3. It shall be about 300 km to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands early Sunday morning, October 4. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: 19W's circulation has continued to improve with expanding spiral outer bands on the southern quadrant...its developing western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi and Yap Islands and is now spreading across Palau Island. Passing rains and gale-force winds may be expected along these outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along 19W's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of this storm.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TS 19W (PRE-PEPENG) remains weak as it tracks WNW-ward passing near Chuuk Island. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) attaining Category 2 strength as it approaches the coast of Vietnam...continues to show a ragged EYE. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 8.7º N Lat 140.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (132 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 570 km (308 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 645 km (348 nm) ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,620 km (875 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,930 km (1,042 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Yap-Ulithi-Palau Area
Size (in Diameter): 450 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 9.4N 139.2E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / W @ 22 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 31 SEPTEMBER: 9.8N 136.8E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 12.2N 132.6E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 14.9N 129.4E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / NW @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 9.2N 141.4E.
*INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST. A
281607Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST SIDE INTO THE CENTER WITH WEAKER BANDS ON THE NORTH AND
SOUTH SIDES OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AT THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING MODERATE OUTFLOW. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS PAST THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LEADING TO AN INCREASED RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START
TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT THE
OBJECTIVE AIDS START TO DIVERGE IN TIMING ON THE NORTHWARD TURN OF
THE SYSTEM. THE AIDS MAY BE SHOWING SOME ERRATIC MOTION AFTER TAU 72
IN RESPONSE TO TD 18W LOCATED TO THE EAST...(more)

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RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 19W (PRE-PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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