Monday, September 28, 2009

TD 18W (UNNAMED) - Update #004

 


for Monday, 28 September 2009 [8:00 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon September 28 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly (except 12 AM) advisories on TD 18W (UNNAMED).


18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #005
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) now starting to move West across Hall Islands.

    *Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to start tracking WNW and intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system continuing moving WNW, passing very close to the south of Guam by Wednesday afternoon Sep 30. 18W shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday afternoon, Oct 2nd and then turn more on a near-westerly track across the Philippine Sea on Saturday Oct 03, threatening Northern Luzon. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

    + Effects: 18W's circulation continues to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands as of this time.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
    Location of Center: 9.2º N Lat 154.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,165 km (628 nm) SE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,175 km (635 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
    Distance 3: 1,250 km (675 nm) East of TD 19W
    Distance 4: 1,810 km (977 nm) East of Yap, FSM
    Distance 5: 2,150 km (1,160 nm) East of PAR
    Distance 6: 3,190 km (1,722 nm) East of Surigao City, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Mon Sep 28
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06 GMT Mon Sep 28
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 9.7N 152.5E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 24 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 10.5N 150.0E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 26 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 12.7N 144.7E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 22 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 14.2N 140.1E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 22 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 9.1N 154.8E.
    *TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
    EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY
    ORGANIZED. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TD 18W IS VERY LIMITED
    DUE TO THE WEAK DEVELOPMENT, ITS POOR ORGANIZATION AND ITS LIMITED
    HORIZONTAL EXTENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON VORTEX TRACKERS
    FROM WBAR, EGRR, UKMO AND THE EXTENDED MODEL FIELDS FROM ECMWF. THE
    FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY PROXIMITY TO TD 19W, WITH SEVERAL
    NUMERICAL MODELS SHOWING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, WITH
    TD 19W BECOMING THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TD
    18W AND TD 19W IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY BE A RESULT OF THE MODEL
    RESOLUTION, VICE AN ACTUAL INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE
    LATTER (NO INTERACTION BETWEEN TDS 18W AND 19W). THUS, THE TRACK FOR
    TD 18W IS TO THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
    WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH AT TAU 120. THE
    SYSTEM SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR TAU 48. IT IS WORTH
    REPEATING THAT THERE ARE LIMITED NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS AVAILABLE
    FOR THIS SYSTEM, INCREASING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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