Monday, September 28, 2009

TD 18W (UNNAMED) - Update #002

 


for Monday, 28 September 2009 [6:47 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon September 28 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly (except 12 AM) advisories on TD 18W (UNNAMED).


18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) drifting WSW across Central Micronesia as it slightly intensifies.

    *Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to move WNW for the next 24 hours and intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system continuing WNW-ward, passing very close to Guam by early Wednesday...reaching Typhoon status on Thursday morning, Oct 1st. 18W, as a Typhoon, shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Friday morning, Oct 2nd and shall be approaching Extreme Northern Luzon on Saturday, Oct 03. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

    + Effects: 18W's circulation continues to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands as of this time.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon September 28 2009
    Location of Exposed Center: 9.6º N Lat 155.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,280 km (690 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,265 km (683 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
    Distance 3: 1,950 km (1,053 nm) East of Yap, FSM
    Distance 4: 2,290 km (1,237 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 5: 3,330 km (1,798 nm) East of Northern Mindanao
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
    General Direction: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
    NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Mon Sep 28
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18 GMT Sun Sep 27
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 10.4N 154.2E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 26 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 11.0N 151.4E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 33 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 13.3N 144.9E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 24 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 15.2N 139.8E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 26 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 10.1N 156.3E.
    *TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    700 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
    04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
    INTENSIFIED AS CONVECTION, MOSTLY WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC), HAS DEEPENED. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. UPPER LEVEL
    ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 18W IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN
    AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
    THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
    TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
    STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    TO IMPROVE AS THE VWS RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER
    LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 26 CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER
    DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS MINIMAL BUT MARGINALLY IN
    AGREEMENT...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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